The direction of price changes in the secondary housing market depends primarily on demand, interest rates, and the labor market. These factors—especially access to mortgage credit and employment stability—have the most decisive influence on buyers’ decisions. As highlighted in a 2026 trend analysis by a SonarHome.pl expert, the key issue at present remains the balance between demand and financing capacity.
Market experts expect prices to remain stable in 2026, with moderate increases in the second half of the year—clearly slower than during periods of sharp growth, such as 2021 or 2023 (the latter coinciding with the “Safe Mortgage 2%” program). Data from SonarHome.pl, a platform that enables property valuation and agent matching, covering August–October 2025, confirms that asking prices on the secondary market were virtually unchanged. In the most significant cities, slight declines of 1–3% were recorded, while changes in regional cities were minimal.
A fuller picture will only emerge with fourth-quarter reports due in early 2026. Preliminary data from the National Bank of Poland (NBP) indicate that corrections in the third quarter were limited—the most significant declines occurred in Kraków (1.7%) and Gdańsk (1.4%). In most regional cities, prices even rose, with the only decline recorded in Bydgoszcz (1% quarter-on-quarter).
“The market still shows an oversupply relative to demand, although in some cities, such as Warsaw, the number of listings is beginning to fall,” says Anton Bubiel, a residential market expert at SonarHome.pl. “As demand recovers, sellers are more willing to negotiate prices. If access to credit improves in 2026, the labor market remains stable, and supply continues to decline, prices should stay stable or begin to rise in the second half of the year.”
The market remains at an elevated level of supply, although data from the third quarter and October 2025 suggest the first signs of a decline in some cities. These trends are visible in Kraków, Wrocław, Poznań, and Gdynia. A similar pattern has been observed in smaller centers, where supply has been gradually shrinking since July—among others in Bydgoszcz, Olsztyn, Szczecin, Lublin, Kielce, and Zielona Góra.
At the start of 2026, supply is still expected to be relatively high, which is essential information for sellers. Early signs of market recovery are visible, but they should be assessed cautiously. Despite recent cuts, interest rates remain higher than for most of the past decade, and any further reductions in the coming year could improve financing availability and encourage buyers. At the same time, the labor market is gradually cooling, with fewer new jobs being created, tempering some of the optimism. As a result, 2026 is likely to see a slow, gradual reduction in excess supply rather than abrupt changes.
Inflation, interest rates, and GDP in the latest forecasts
The NBP’s latest projection from November 2025 indicates that inflation in 2026 should approach the central bank’s target. According to forecasts, CPI inflation will be 3.7% in 2025, fall to 2.9% in 2026, and reach 2.5% in 2027. Core inflation is expected to follow a similar path, gradually declining from 3.3% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2027. The assumptions behind this projection are relatively favorable—implying stable energy prices, no major changes in interest rates, and moderate demand growth. At the same time, the NBP points to risk factors such as rising energy prices, rapid wage growth, or increased government spending, which could keep inflation above target. Conversely, weaker demand could bring inflation to target more quickly.
Forecast inflation of 2.9% in 2026—within the allowable deviation band from the target—suggests stable or even lower mortgage borrowing costs. In the absence of inflationary pressure, the Monetary Policy Council has room for further rate cuts in 2026, and economists estimate that the reference rate could fall to 3.5%, i.e., 75 basis points below the end-2025 level. For someone planning a mortgage, this would translate into a tangible improvement in creditworthiness. For a 25-year loan of PLN 500,000, potential rate cuts could increase borrowing capacity by around 8%, or PLN 38,000–45,000, with the debt-to-income (DTI) ratio approaching 50%, the limit recommended by the Polish Financial Supervision Authority (KNF).
“After a period of high interest rates, the mortgage market is entering a recovery phase, and according to NBP forecasts, credit growth will accelerate at the turn of 2025 and 2026, then gradually weaken by 2027,” notes Anton Bubiel. “This segment is influenced by both demand-side factors—such as household finances and the lack of new support programs—and supply-side factors, including banks’ risk policies and macroprudential regulations, which in the past have shifted in response to sudden events like the pandemic.”
Currently, the most significant source of uncertainty remains the geopolitical situation. However, in the absence of major shocks, early 2026 is expected to bring a clear rebound in both the number and value of new loans—typical for an economy emerging from a period of high inflation. Growth may slow in the second half of the year but is expected to remain positive. In 2025, the reference rate fell from 5.75% to 4.25%, drawing consumers back to the market. In September, the number of new loans nearly matched levels seen during the Safe Mortgage 2% program.
The NBP’s GDP projection is also optimistic, assuming that the Polish economy will accelerate in 2026, reaching the highest growth rate within the current forecast horizon. GDP growth is expected to be 3.4% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026, before easing slightly the following year. Consumption is set to be the primary driver of growth, supported by a strong labor market, rising real wages, and greater income availability. Investment—particularly projects financed with EU funds—will also play an important role. For households, this translates into relatively stable real incomes, low unemployment, and predictable prices, although wage growth will gradually slow.
Housing programs need greater promotion
Assessments of housing support programs in Poland remain closely tied to economic and political beliefs. In public debate, the most frequently cited problem is that mortgage subsidies can effectively stimulate demand but also lead to rapid price increases, as seen during the Safe Mortgage 2% program.
Among the support tools still in place, the Family Housing Loan—previously operating as a down-payment guarantee scheme—is key. This solution enables the purchase of a flat or house without personal savings, as Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego guarantees the shortfall in the down payment, effectively allowing up to 100% financing. The program is available to singles, couples, and families with children, provided they meet creditworthiness requirements and do not own another property. Although the mechanism offers tangible benefits—reducing indebtedness and strengthening the budgets of large families—it remains relatively little known, and interest to date has been modest.
Social data nonetheless indicate clear demand for public support in housing. CBOS surveys show that more than half of Poles expect the state to play an active role in facilitating home purchases or construction. Priorities differ, however—some favor support for buyers, while others prefer investment in municipal housing or the development of rental and cooperative housing. Opinions are also divided on responsibility: similar shares believe housing policy should be primarily a state task or that citizens should assume greater responsibility, with nearly one-third favoring an equal division.
Uncertainty cools investor activity
According to market participants, demand for housing is recovering slowly, partly due to reduced investor activity in purchasing properties for rental. In recent years, rental supply has increased in many cities, while returns have fallen due to high purchase prices and stabilizing rents. Investor enthusiasm is further dampened by political announcements of tax changes, including limits on housing tax relief and the introduction of a progressive property tax. Elevated geopolitical uncertainty, including the prolonged war in Ukraine, also weighs on decisions. As a result, the market increasingly relies on purchases for own use or for children—segments that naturally grow more slowly than portfolio investments.
“Conversations with investors show that those who fueled demand in the previous decade are now acting much more cautiously, and some are even withdrawing from further purchases in Poland,” concludes Anton Bubiel. “They point to a saturated rental market, lower profitability, the risk of higher or additional taxes, and general uncertainty linked to the international situation. Many people considering property investment are looking abroad, often to southern countries, to combine purchases with personal use. If this investor segment remains weak, it will be difficult to see a rapid rebound in demand—purchases made solely by owner-occupiers naturally progress at a slower pace and do not generate sudden market swings.”
