The average price per square metre has recently begun to mislead more than inform. The average is highly sensitive to the structure of the offer and can be relatively easily “pushed up” by expensive apartments. Experts from RynekPierwotny.pl point out that the median is a much better measure of the “typical” apartment price.
“Changes in the average price per square metre depend largely on shifts in the price structure of the offer. When a large pool of apartments priced significantly above the market average enters the market, the indicator rises,” explains Marek Wielgo, an expert at RynekPierwotny.pl.
The Average That Looks More Frightening Than the Actual Prices
On paper, the situation looks fairly alarming. According to BIG DATA from RynekPierwotny.pl, the average price per square metre of new apartments in Warsaw reached PLN 20,000 in April. But when one looks inside that figure, the market picture becomes less dramatic. The median — the price exactly in the “middle of the pack” — was PLN 17,600. That is a difference of as much as 13%.
A similar mechanism can be seen in other major cities. In Kraków, the average was PLN 17,100, while the median stood at PLN 16,000. In Wrocław, the figures were PLN 15,300 and PLN 14,300 respectively, and in Poznań PLN 14,300 and PLN 13,200.
Another pattern is also visible: the more high-end apartments there are in a given market, the wider the gap between the average and the median. It is no coincidence that Warsaw leads in this respect. It is a market where prices of the most expensive apartments now reach more than PLN 80,000 per square metre.
At the other end of the spectrum is Łódź. There, the difference between the average and the median is symbolic, while the most expensive apartments cost around PLN 36,000 per square metre. The luxury segment exists, but it does not have the same power to influence statistics as it does in the capital.
This clearly shows that the greater the share of premium apartments, the more the average and the median diverge — and the more cautiously headline figures should be interpreted.
The Luxury Tail Pulls the Average Upwards
This discrepancy does not come from nowhere. The beginning of the year brought a real wave of top-priced projects to Warsaw. In January, apartments in Liberty Tower went on sale with prices reaching PLN 45,000 per square metre. Just a month later, even more expensive projects appeared. In the Murano development by Profbud, prices reached PLN 54,000 per square metre, while in a luxury project in Wola developed by Monting Development, the most expensive apartments were priced at as much as PLN 80,400 per square metre.
This is, of course, the margin of the market. But it is a margin that can shape the statistics. In practice, the average price is often lifted by very expensive premium apartments appearing in developers’ offers. The average therefore does not mean that all apartments are becoming more expensive. It only means that the “mix” is changing — and the more premium stock there is, the higher the result.
What the Average Shows When Broken Down by Segment
This phenomenon becomes clear when the average is calculated separately for individual market segments. In that case, even this measure gives a better picture of the real market situation. In the popular segment, professionally referred to as economy and economy plus, the average asking price of apartments has remained at around PLN 17,000 per square metre for two years, showing no increase. This is the segment with the richest offer and the one most frequently chosen by consumers.
The situation is different in the higher-end segment, which RynekPierwotny.pl experts divide into upper-middle and premium. The former consists of projects aimed at affluent buyers, often investors, in very good locations, with prices exceeding PLN 25,000 per square metre. The latter includes top-tier projects, of which there are only a handful. They are uncompromising in terms of location, architecture, large apartment sizes and luxury. They are chosen by the wealthiest Poles and foreign buyers, with prices starting at PLN 50,000, and often reaching PLN 60,000 per square metre or more.
“Average prices of higher-end apartments in Warsaw have increased by 37% over the past two years, from an average of PLN 31,000 per square metre to PLN 42,000. This is the result of several top-tier projects, such as Szara 10A, Rozbrat 44, Chłodna 35 and Villa Bogoria, where an apartment costs on average PLN 6 million or more. This is an offer for the most uncompromising, but also the wealthiest, clients. It used to be a rarity on the capital’s market; today we are seeing a real wave of such projects. It is not height or a central location that determines their positioning. It is the unique, uninterrupted and intimate vibe of the entire project that can convince not only a Polish multimillionaire, but also a buyer from London, Berlin or Paris,” explains Jan Dziekoński, Chief Economist at RynekPierwotny.pl.
When “Normal” Apartments Return to the Market
This year, the average price per square metre in Warsaw has already risen by around 8%. The pace of increases in the first months of 2026 was higher than during the previous two years. At first glance, it might have seemed that the market was accelerating and entering a new price level. But that is only part of the truth.
In May, the situation began to reverse. A large number of more moderately priced apartments entered the Warsaw market. More than 100 units in the Głębocka Vita development and over 700 apartments in subsequent stages of Bulwary Praskie are examples of supply that does not belong to the premium segment. The effect? Instead of continuing its upward march, the average price per square metre may fall slightly to around PLN 19,900. Not because developers have started lowering prices, but because the structure of the offer has changed.
The Median: A Calmer and More Reliable Point of Reference
The problem with the average is that it puts completely different worlds into one basket: luxury apartments and homes often bought with a mortgage. As a result, the figure may look impressive, but it does not always accurately describe reality. Experts from RynekPierwotny.pl stress that the median works differently. It cuts off the extremes and shows the core of the market — the place where supply meets buyers’ real financial capacity. And that core, as the data shows, is much less “overheated” than headlines suggest.
“The average price per square metre is a useful indicator, but primarily for observing trends and changes in developers’ offers. However, if we want to answer the question of how much an apartment really costs for an average buyer, it is better to look at the median. It shows the market not as it appears in statistics, but as it actually is,” comments Marek Wielgo.
