The National Bank of Poland’s latest projection lowers its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 3.7% while significantly raising the inflation outlook to 2.9% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027, compared with 2.3% and 2.4%, respectively, in the March projection. Economic growth is expected to be supported by a sharp acceleration in investment financed through Poland’s National Recovery Plan. However, the central bank assesses the balance of risks to inflation in 2028 as tilted to the upside.
Economic Growth: Acceleration in 2026, Followed by a Slowdown in 2027
The National Bank of Poland forecasts GDP growth of 3.7% in 2026, slightly below the 3.9% projected in March. Growth is then expected to slow significantly to 2.8% in 2027 before recovering to 3.0% in 2028.
The Polish economy expanded by 3.6% in 2025. Current indicators for the second quarter of 2026, including industrial production, retail sales and the total wage bill, suggest that GDP growth accelerated to 3.8% year on year, following a slowdown to 3.5% in the first quarter.
Domestic demand is expected to remain the main driver of economic growth, supported by stronger investment activity. Net exports, however, are projected to make a negative contribution to GDP growth throughout most of the forecast horizon.
Among the factors likely to constrain growth over the longer term, the NBP identifies lower absorption of EU funds after their expected peak in 2026, an elevated household savings rate, rising expenditure associated with the energy transition and weak external demand.
The central bank lowered its euro-area growth forecast for 2026 to 0.5%, from 1.1% in the March projection. Its forecast for Germany was also revised down, to 0.7% from 1.0%.
Inflation: Significant Upward Revision, with Risks Tilted to the Upside in 2028
CPI inflation is projected to average 2.9% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027. This represents a substantial upward revision from the March projection, which assumed inflation of 2.3% and 2.4%, respectively.
The revision is primarily attributed to higher import prices, including the cost of fuels, transport services and recreational services, as well as stronger demand pressure, reflected in a temporarily positive output gap in 2026.
Core inflation is expected to reach 3.1% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027 before falling to 2.4% in 2028, when cost pressures linked to developments in global commodity markets are expected to begin easing.
| Indicator | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP growth — July 2026 projection | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 3.0% |
| GDP growth — March 2026 projection | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% |
| CPI inflation — July 2026 projection | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.2% |
| CPI inflation — March 2026 projection | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.3% |
| Wage growth | — | 8.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% |
| Gross fixed capital formation | — | 4.4% | 7.1% | 1.6% | 2.7% |
| Current account balance as a percentage of GDP | — | -0.9% | -0.9% | -1.1% | -0.6% |
The figures are based on tables included in the July 2026 NECMOD projection. Values for wages, investment and the current account balance for 2024 were not included in the published quarterly tables. Data source: National Bank of Poland.
The central bank estimates that the probability of inflation remaining within the permitted deviation band around the inflation target, between 1.5% and 3.5%, stands at 79% in 2026. However, this probability falls to 40% in 2027 and 33% in 2028.
This points to increasing uncertainty over whether inflation will remain sustainably close to the target as the projection horizon extends. The NBP explicitly states that the balance of risks to CPI inflation in 2028 is tilted to the upside, while the risks surrounding the GDP growth path are broadly balanced.
| Year | Central CPI path | 50% range — lower bound | 50% range — upper bound | Probability of remaining within the 1.5–3.5% band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 79% |
| 2027 | 2.7% | 1.5% | 4.0% | 40% |
| 2028 | 2.2% | 0.8% | 3.9% | 33% |
The figures show the probability distribution of the CPI inflation path based on the fan chart included in the July 2026 projection. Data source: National Bank of Poland.
Labour Market: Record-Low Unemployment, but Slower Wage Growth and Fewer Payroll Jobs
The unemployment rate is expected to remain broadly stable throughout the projection horizon, at approximately 3.0–3.2%.
At the same time, wage growth is projected to slow significantly, from 8.7% in 2025 to 6.4% in 2026, 5.8% in 2027 and 5.5% in 2028. This is expected to contribute directly to slower growth in household consumption compared with 2025.
The NBP also notes a continued decline in payroll employment in the enterprise sector, which fell by 0.8% year on year in May 2026, according to labour market data. Meanwhile, the Broad Labour Underutilisation Index rose to 5.1%, significantly above the unemployment rate of 3.2%.
This suggests that a reserve of potentially available labour remains in the economy despite the formally low unemployment rate.
Investment: Recovery Plan Funds to Drive Acceleration Before a Sharp Slowdown
Gross fixed capital formation is expected to accelerate from 4.4% in 2025 to 7.1% in 2026. Growth is then projected to slow sharply to 1.6% in 2027 before recovering to 2.7% in 2028.
The main factor behind the acceleration in 2026 is the expected increase in EU funding under Poland’s National Recovery Plan. Nearly two-thirds of the available funds still need to be used in 2026 and 2027, while data from the first months of the year indicate that spending under the programme is gaining momentum.
Poland nevertheless remained below the EU average in its use of grants from the Recovery and Resilience Facility between 2020 and 2025, leaving room for a further acceleration in fund absorption.
Foreign Trade: Poland Becomes the Euro Area’s Third-Largest Goods Supplier
Poland strengthened its position in the EU market in 2025, becoming the third-largest supplier of goods to euro-area markets. It ranked behind China and the United States but ahead of the Czech Republic, the United Kingdom and Switzerland.
Poland’s share of euro-area imports continued to increase compared with 2024. Since 2020, the volume of Polish goods exports has grown considerably faster than the EU and German averages, making Poland one of the regional leaders in the post-pandemic export recovery.
Between January 2025 and March 2026, the product categories making the largest contribution to export growth included clothing and accessories, meat and meat products, and computers and office machinery. Germany, the Czech Republic and Sweden were the largest growth markets.
Business Outlook
The upward revision to the inflation path for 2026 and 2027, from 2.3% to 2.9% and from 2.4% to 2.7%, respectively, combined with the projection’s assumption of unchanged NBP interest rates, points to a longer period of elevated financing costs and price pressures for businesses than expected in March.
Companies may therefore need to revise their budget assumptions for 2026 and 2027.
At the same time, the projected acceleration in investment growth to 7.1% in 2026, driven by National Recovery Plan funding, creates opportunities for companies operating in construction, technology and services for the public sector. This will depend, however, on whether the public administration maintains the planned pace of EU fund absorption, which has so far remained below the EU average.
Key Conclusions
The NBP revised its GDP growth forecast for 2026 down to 3.7% from 3.9% in March. It also lowered its projection for 2027 to 2.8%, while significantly raising the inflation outlook to 2.9% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027, compared with 2.3% and 2.4%, respectively, in the March forecast.
The probability of inflation remaining within the permitted deviation band around the target falls from 79% in 2026 to 33% in 2028. The NBP assesses the balance of inflation risks in 2028 as tilted to the upside.
Wage growth is expected to slow from 8.7% in 2025 to 5.5% in 2028, limiting the pace of household consumption growth in the coming years.
Investment growth is projected to accelerate to 7.1% in 2026, supported by National Recovery Plan funds, around two-thirds of which remain to be used. It is then expected to slow sharply to 1.6% in 2027.
Poland became the third-largest supplier of goods to euro-area markets in 2025, increasing its market share compared with 2024.
Despite persistently low unemployment of around 3.1%, the Broad Labour Underutilisation Index has risen to 5.1%, while payroll employment in the enterprise sector continues to decline.
The main risks to the projection include further developments in the Middle East conflict and their effect on commodity prices, EU decisions concerning industrial and trade policy, the introduction of the EU Emissions Trading System for buildings and road transport, known as ETS2, in 2028, and the future direction of fiscal policy amid a high government budget deficit.
Data source: National Bank of Poland, Economic Analysis and Research Department, Inflation and Economic Growth Projection of the National Bank of Poland Based on the NECMOD Model, Warsaw, 10 July 2026. Additional underlying data sources include Statistics Poland, Eurostat, Bloomberg, the Food and Agriculture Organization, IHS Markit, Poland’s Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Development Funds and Regional Policy.
