The downward trend in third-party motor insurance prices is likely coming to an end. Over the course of a month, the average MTPL premium (PLN 652) increased by 1.4%. This was the sharpest increase since May 2025. Current market conditions point to further price rises. According to data from the Polish Insurance Association, the average claim increased by 11% year on year and now exceeds PLN 12,000.
MTPL still cheaper than a quarter and a year earlier
In the first quarter of 2026, the median MTPL premium stood at PLN 648. That was PLN 10 less than in the fourth quarter of 2025 and PLN 40 less than a year earlier (PLN 688), representing a decline of nearly 6% year on year. At the same time, monthly data shows a reversal of the trend. In March (PLN 652), prices were already higher than in February (PLN 643) and reached their highest level since November last year.
“MTPL price cuts, which we observed at the beginning of the year, may be coming to an end. On a month-to-month basis, a slight increase is already visible. Insurers paid nearly 7% more in MTPL claims than a year earlier, the average claim value rose by more than PLN 1,000 over the year, and although the sector remains profitable, profitability is still very low. In the longer term, such a situation supports premium increases,” says Aleksandra Wilczyńska, Head of Auto at Rankomat.pl.
The biggest declines were recorded in the most expensive regions
Although prices fell year on year in all provinces, the strongest correction affected the regions that had previously been the most expensive. In the Pomeranian Voivodeship, the median premium amounted to PLN 735, down PLN 74 year on year. In Lower Silesia it stood at PLN 701, down PLN 57, while in Mazovia it reached PLN 689, down PLN 68. The cheapest MTPL policies are still available in south-eastern Poland, especially in Podkarpacie (PLN 556), Opole Voivodeship (PLN 570), and Świętokrzyskie (PLN 569).
A similar year-on-year pattern can be seen in provincial capitals. Drivers in Gdańsk (PLN 850) and Wrocław (PLN 853) still pay the most, yet these were also the cities where prices fell the most. At the same time, the number of large cities where the average premium dropped below PLN 700 is growing. There are now five such cities, compared with only two a year ago. The cheapest MTPL cover was available to drivers in Opole (PLN 625 versus PLN 649 a year earlier, down PLN 24), Rzeszów (PLN 637 versus PLN 702, down PLN 65), and Katowice (PLN 692 versus PLN 697, down PLN 5).
This may be the end of the stabilization period
The data suggests that after sharp increases in 2023 and 2024, the MTPL market entered a short phase of stabilization, which may now be coming to an end. Rising claim costs, higher compensation payouts, and very low sector profitability are creating conditions for insurance prices to start climbing again.
For drivers, this means that the current premium levels may only be temporary, and in the coming months a scenario of gradual increases appears more likely than further declines.
