Forecasts predicting a strong rebound in housing demand following successive interest rate cuts have proven overly optimistic. Demand is recovering only slowly, yet banks are reporting a substantial increase in mortgage inquiries. The Metrohouse & Credipass Barometer report for Q3 2025 — prepared in collaboration with the real estate portal RynekPierwotny.pl — provides an overview of current trends on the mortgage and housing markets.
Mortgage Volumes Reach Decade-High Levels
The volume of mortgages granted in Q3 2025 is indeed impressive. According to the authors of the Metrohouse & Credipass Barometer, mortgage sales are among the highest seen in the past decade. However, experts caution against excessive optimism, as these figures partly reflect rising property prices — clearly visible in the average loan amount — and a growing share of refinancing loans.
“The Monetary Policy Council’s (RPP) successive decisions to lower the reference rate have contributed to a revival in demand, but not as strong as the industry had anticipated. While some clients who had been waiting for cheaper financing decided to enter the market, we still assess that the so-called ‘frozen demand’ represents a significant purchasing potential. This could be unlocked only under conditions of further monetary policy easing by the RPP, coupled with stabilization of both the housing market and the geopolitical situation,”
said Marcin Jańczuk, Metrohouse expert and co-author of the Barometer report.
Variable Rates Return as Banks Compete for Borrowers
According to Andrzej Łukaszewski, financial expert at Credipass, demand is shaped not only by monetary policy but also by banks’ competitive actions.
“From the borrower’s perspective, the choice between fixed and variable interest rates is gaining importance. Until recently, fixed-rate loans — typically five-year — dominated. However, the decline in the 3M WIBOR benchmark and expectations of further rate cuts have made variable rates popular again. This has intensified competition among banks — more institutions are offering promotional terms and lowering margins. Some fixed-rate offers now even start with a ‘5’ in front,”
Łukaszewski explains.
Buyers Still Waiting for Apartment Price Reductions
Many prospective buyers are waiting not only for cheaper loans but also for price corrections in the housing market.
According to the report, while the average sale prices of second-hand apartments have fallen year-on-year across all five analyzed cities, the primary market tells a different story. Only Łódź recorded a modest year-on-year price decrease, while prices rose in other cities.
Developers are aware that the new Apartment Price Transparency Act has made the market more open and competitive — prompting buyers to demand discounts and price negotiations.
“Currently, apartments are mostly purchased by end-users — people seeking housing for their own needs. The era of mass buy-to-let investment that we saw two or three years ago is over. This shift means that sellers now rely more heavily on transactions financed by external capital. Yet barriers remain high: compared to Europe, financing costs are elevated, creditworthiness is still low, and many buyers struggle to save enough for the required down payment,”
said Marcin Jańczuk, Metrohouse expert.
Primary Market: Growing Price Divergence Between Cities
The primary housing market in Q3 2025 was marked by increased activity and greater price differentiation across cities.
Developers faced new legal obligations to disclose listing prices of apartments and houses, while two small NBP interest rate cuts helped stimulate demand. Several noteworthy shifts emerged in the latest data.
Price changes varied more widely than in the previous quarter. In Warsaw and Wrocław, average price per square meter rose mainly because newly disclosed luxury apartment prices were included in the statistics — many of which had previously been unavailable to the public or rarely appeared in listings.
“It’s worth noting that these two cities — Warsaw and Wrocław — have the largest number of new luxury apartments exceeding 100 m², with listing prices above PLN 20,000 per m². It’s no surprise that the inclusion of these high-end properties had the strongest upward impact on local averages,”
said Andrzej Prajsnar, analyst at RynekPierwotny.pl.
Łódź Stands Out with Noticeable Price Drops
Experts at RynekPierwotny.pl highlight the Łódź market, which recorded a significant quarterly drop in the average listing price of new apartments.
A detailed analysis shows a sharp increase in the supply of units priced between PLN 10,001–12,000 per m², at the expense of those priced PLN 12,001–15,000 per m².
“Throughout the past quarter, developers in Łódź expanded their offerings with apartments priced well below the city’s average. For instance, the average price of newly listed units in September 2025 was PLN 10,561 per m². This consistent pricing strategy has driven the city’s overall average downward, further widening the gap compared to other major markets. In addition, the ‘price transparency’ adjustments introduced in September were more visible in Łódź than elsewhere,”
added Andrzej Prajsnar, expert at RynekPierwotny.pl.
Source: CEO.com.pl – “Mortgage Recovery Does Not Match Housing Demand Growth”
