May brought the third consecutive decline in mortgage affordability — this time across all model household types. As a result, in many cities, thousands of apartments became unaffordable for buyers within just one month. This is according to a BIG DATA analysis by RynekPierwotny.pl and Rankomat.pl.
“It is good that the Monetary Policy Council did not raise interest rates. At a time when the housing market is clearly losing momentum, such a decision could have weakened demand for apartments even further. This is especially important because even without any changes in interest rates, we are already seeing a decline in mortgage affordability and a rapid shrinking of the pool of apartments within buyers’ reach,” says Marek Wielgo, an expert at RynekPierwotny.pl.
Mortgage Affordability Declined Across the Board
The latest analysis by Rankomat.pl, covering offers from ten banks, shows that mortgage affordability fell in May for the third month in a row — and across all types of households.
An average-earning single person with a net income of around PLN 6,000 could count on approximately PLN 420,000 in a mortgage with a temporarily fixed interest rate, which is about 3% less than in April. In the case of a two-person household with a net income of PLN 8,000, the decline was similar, bringing affordability down to around PLN 543,000, also 3% lower. Families with one child and a net income of PLN 10,000 were hit the hardest, with their mortgage capacity shrinking by around 5% to approximately PLN 641,000.
Credit Is Disappearing — and Affordable Apartments Are Disappearing Even Faster
The decline in mortgage affordability immediately translated into a sharp reduction in the number of apartments within buyers’ financial reach, especially in the segment of the smallest and cheapest units.
According to BIG DATA from RynekPierwotny.pl, in May the number of apartments affordable for single buyers fell in all analysed metropolitan areas, often by double digits. In Łódź, the available offer shrank from around 5,500 to 5,200 apartments, a decrease of 5%. In the cities of the Górnośląsko-Zagłębiowska Metropolis, it fell from approximately 5,200 to 4,800 apartments, down 8%, while in Poznań it dropped from around 1,900 to 1,700 apartments, down 10%.
In the Tricity, the number of affordable units decreased from about 1,300 to 1,100, a fall of 13%. In Wrocław, it dropped from around 1,300 to 1,000 apartments, down 24%, and in Warsaw from around 900 to 700, also down 24%. The most striking decline was recorded in Kraków, where the number of apartments within reach fell from around 400 to 300, a drop of as much as 26% in just one month.
The situation looks slightly better for childless couples, although declines in the number of affordable apartments also dominate in this segment. In Łódź, the available offer remained virtually unchanged at around 8,100 apartments. In the cities of the Górnośląsko-Zagłębiowska Metropolis, however, it fell from around 8,100 to 7,700 apartments, down 5%.
In Poznań, the offer decreased from approximately 4,100 to 3,900 apartments, a decline of 4%. In Wrocław, it fell from around 4,300 to 3,700, down 13%, while in Warsaw it dropped from around 3,800 to 3,400, down 10%. In Kraków, the number of affordable apartments fell from approximately 3,300 to 2,800, a decline of 16%, and in the Tricity from around 2,900 to 2,700, down 6%.
May also brought a deterioration in the situation of families with one child, who just a month earlier had been the only group to record an increase in mortgage affordability. In the cities of the Górnośląsko-Zagłębiowska Metropolis, the number of apartments affordable for this group fell from around 9,400 to 9,100, down 3%, while in Łódź it remained stable at approximately 9,100.
In Warsaw, the available offer shrank from around 7,200 to 6,500 apartments, down 8%. In Wrocław, it fell from approximately 6,600 to 5,900, a decrease of 11%, and in Kraków from around 6,100 to 5,200, down 14%. In Poznań, the offer remained stable at around 5,600 apartments, while in the Tricity it declined from approximately 4,300 to 4,000, down 6%.
The scale of the change is best seen in the numbers: within just one month, thousands of apartments affordable for average-earning households effectively “disappeared” from the market in Poland’s largest metropolitan areas. Even a relatively small deterioration in mortgage affordability was enough to sharply reduce the pool of available homes.
Uncertainty Is Rising — and Cooling Demand
The worsening availability of apartments is being compounded by growing uncertainty among households. Although the unemployment rate remains relatively low, at 6.1% in March, concerns about the future of the labour market are clearly increasing. Consumer sentiment surveys show that more than 45% of Poles expect unemployment to rise over the next 12 months, while 16% forecast a significant increase. This is the highest level of pessimism since 2023.
“In practice, this means that even people who currently have sufficient mortgage capacity may postpone the decision to buy an apartment. Concerns about job security directly affect the willingness to take on long-term financial commitments,” comments Marek Wielgo.
A Drop in Mortgage Demand Is Already Visible
The first signs of cooling demand are already visible in mortgage market data. In April, the number of people applying for a housing loan fell from 63,300 in March to 42,300, a decline of as much as one third. At the same time, the number of loans actually granted did not fall. On the contrary, it increased slightly, from around 28,700 to 29,100.
This apparent paradox has a simple explanation. April still reflected the processing of strong demand from March, which had been driven largely by refinancing. Banks were finalising previously submitted applications, while the inflow of new customers clearly weakened.
“We will see the true picture of the market only in the coming months, when the number of loans granted begins to reflect the weaker inflow of new applications,” says Marek Wielgo.
What Next for Apartment Sales?
The RynekPierwotny.pl expert points out that monetary policy remains an additional source of uncertainty. Until recently, the market had expected further interest rate cuts. However, the geopolitical situation and inflation risks have clearly changed those expectations.
The May inflation reading, at 3.1% year on year, was lower than forecast, but it does not provide a clear basis for further monetary easing. The most likely scenario is now a stabilisation of interest rates, which means there will be no quick improvement in mortgage affordability.
“For the housing market, this means a prolonged state of suspension. Without a clear improvement in mortgage affordability, it is difficult to expect the availability of apartments to recover, while rising uncertainty may further limit demand,” concludes Marek Wielgo.
In his view, the optimistic scenario now assumes that apartment sales will remain close to the 2025 level. Less favourable scenarios, however, point to a decline in sales of several percent — or, in an extreme case, even by double digits.
Source: CEO.com.pl
