The past year, 2025, was a time of contradictions for Poland’s economy. On the one hand, Poland recorded one of the fastest GDP growth rates in the entire European Union. On the other, Polish companies struggled with numerous challenges. As Coface reports, as many as 6,566 businesses declared insolvency—17.8% more than in 2024. What factors drove such a sharp rise in insolvencies despite favorable overall economic conditions?
Most of the difficulties Poland faced in 2025 were external in nature. The year began with an escalation of trade wars—high tariffs and prolonged uncertainty about the final shape of tariff policy continued to weigh heavily on exports. Tariff disputes also brought other, less direct consequences. Chinese exporters confronted with high tariffs on the U.S. market redirected a significant portion of their overproduction to European Union countries, increasing competitive pressure on European manufacturers. Germany’s stagnation remained a major factor as well, given that Germany is Poland’s largest trading partner. It is also worth noting that the high number of insolvent companies was influenced by greater awareness among entrepreneurs, who are increasingly choosing restructuring proceedings instead of bankruptcy.
A two-speed economy
The year 2025 confirmed that Poland is operating as a two-speed economy: on the one hand, we saw strong GDP growth, which Coface estimated at 3.6%; on the other, the financial condition of many companies deteriorated. Where does this gap come from?
“Despite unfavorable external conditions, Poland remained the fastest-growing large economy in the European Union and moved into the group of the world’s 20 largest economies. This resilience was possible thanks to a relatively large domestic market and a strongly diversified geographical and product structure of Polish exports,” says Dr. Mateusz Dadej, Chief Economist at Coface in Poland and the Central and Eastern Europe Region. “Unfortunately, the general improvement in the business cycle was not enough to offset the mounting difficulties related to costs faced by Polish companies. Wage growth, although it clearly slowed over the course of the year, still exceeded productivity growth in the economy. As a result, corporate financial results and average sales profitability remained below the levels seen in 2022–2023,” the expert adds.
Insolvencies by sector
The sectors that suffered most in 2025 were services and construction. Services accounted for the largest share of insolvency cases overall (1,859 companies, i.e., 28% of all insolvencies). Construction continued to record one of the highest year-on-year dynamics (1,155 companies, 18% of total insolvencies).
“Global market developments certainly had a negative impact on manufacturing sectors, including weaker conditions in the euro area, an inflow of imported goods—mainly from Asia—and turbulence in foreign trade caused by tariff wars initiated by the U.S.,” says Paweł Tobis, Vice President of the Management Board responsible for Operations and Risk Assessment at Coface. “On the other hand, we should note the role of a high cost base—the effect of wage changes and rising fixed costs—which largely contributes to the difficulties faced by entrepreneurs in sectors such as trade and services,” he explains.
What awaits Polish companies in 2026?
Coface experts indicate that the number of insolvencies in the coming months will be shaped largely by the growing share of restructuring within insolvency proceedings. This means that in 2026, the number of companies struggling with liquidity is likely to rise to around 7,500 cases. However, thanks to a supportive macroeconomic environment, the pace of growth should slow markedly compared with 2023–2025.
And what about the condition of the Polish economy?
“In 2026, we can expect a relatively strong pace of economic growth. According to our forecasts, GDP growth will accelerate to 3.8%. The main driver will most likely be investment, while additional support for our economy should come this time from abroad. Fiscal spending in Germany should gradually revive its economy and, at the same time, boost demand for Polish exporters,” predicts Dr. Mateusz Dadej. “The key question for 2026 is whether we will remain a two-speed economy. The last year showed that the relationship between GDP growth and corporate financial health is no longer as simple and direct as it used to be. There are, however, several factors that allow for cautious optimism about an improvement in companies’ situation—especially on the cost side. Wage growth should continue to slow significantly and converge toward productivity growth. A favorable downward trend in energy commodity prices is also persisting, and the cost of external financing is clearly lower than in 2025,” the expert concludes.
