An additional €3 billion spent on fossil fuel imports—this is the cost European taxpayers incurred during the first 10 days of the war in the Middle East, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told the European Parliament. During that period, gas prices surged by 50% and oil prices rose by 27%, while the cost of nuclear and renewable energy remained stable. “We must reduce our dependence on fossil fuels. Every time a war breaks out that we did not start, we pay for it through higher fuel prices,” said Robert Biedroń, Member of the European Parliament from the New Left.
The conflict in the Middle East, which began on February 28, 2026, has disrupted oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), export volumes of crude oil and refined products fell to less than 10% of pre-conflict levels as of March 11. This has forced operators across the region to suspend or significantly reduce production. Last year, an average of 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products passed daily through the strait, accounting for roughly 25% of global seaborne oil trade.
As noted by Agata Łoskot-Strachota of the Centre for Eastern Studies in her analysis “Attack on Iran: Challenges for the Oil Market,” the Strait of Hormuz is a critical export route for six major oil-producing countries in the Persian Gulf. Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Qatar together hold around 55% of global oil reserves. In 2024, these countries accounted for approximately 30% of global oil production and about 35% of exports. They are also key producers and exporters of gasoline, LPG, diesel, jet fuel, and other petroleum products.
“Once again, Europe is paying a high price for a conflict it did not initiate. This war was triggered by Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu—by Israel and the United States. They should bear the cost in the Middle East. Sooner or later, however, the consequences reach Europe. They are already being felt in Poland through rising fuel and product prices,” Biedroń said in an interview with Newseria.
According to Eurostat, crude oil and petroleum products were the main category of energy imports into the European Union in 2024, accounting for 67% of total energy imports. The largest suppliers were the United States (16%), Norway (12%), and Kazakhstan (9%). Additional imports came from Saudi Arabia (8%), the United Kingdom (6%), and Libya (6%). The EU’s energy import dependency rate stood at 57% in 2024.
“Why should we keep adding to fuel costs if we can become increasingly independent, for example through investments in renewable energy? The European Union should promote and support this autonomy and resilience, so that in the long term we are less exposed to such crises,” the MEP emphasized.
On March 17, Brent crude traded at around $100 per barrel, while WTI crude reached $92.5. Since March 2, prices have increased by more than 37%. This surge has quickly translated into higher fuel prices, despite the release of strategic oil reserves. According to BM Reflex, within two weeks of the outbreak of the war, the average price of diesel in Poland rose to PLN 7.64 per liter, while gasoline (95 octane) reached PLN 6.53 per liter.
“Today we know who will certainly lose from the conflict in the Middle East. Europeans will lose, Poles will lose. Netanyahu will gain politically and will try to maintain power. Putin will also benefit, as global attention shifts away from the war in Ukraine,” Biedroń argued. “This is not only about attention—it is also about limited resources. Whenever war breaks out, the European Union pays the price, for example by providing humanitarian aid and later supporting reconstruction. The budget is not unlimited. Ukraine will once again become a victim.”
On March 16, the European Commission announced €458 million in humanitarian aid for countries affected by the war in the Middle East, including Syria, Palestine, Lebanon, Jordan, and Egypt.
According to Biedroń, further escalation of the conflict could weaken support for Ukraine, particularly in terms of military equipment and ammunition.
“During the first three days of the war in Iran, 800 Patriot missiles were used—that is as many as were used during four years of war in Ukraine. It is not possible to quickly replenish such stockpiles. Ukraine will once again bear the consequences,” he said. “Anyone supporting Trump and the actions in Iran should think twice. Sooner or later, Europeans will have to pay the price.”
The situation may also benefit Russia. Disruptions in oil supply from the Middle East could open new opportunities for Russian exports.
“Putin is certainly hoping that new opportunities will emerge due to the situation in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil and gas exports pass. However, China—which maintains strong relations in the region—is already negotiating with Iran, and tankers carrying oil and gas to China are being allowed through. So Putin is unlikely to strike a major deal with China in this context,” Biedroń assessed.
According to Statista, citing Visual Capitalist data, China is the largest buyer of Iranian oil. In 2024, approximately 90% of Iran’s oil exports were directed to China.
“Iran is a serious adversary. It is a country with enormous demographic, economic, and military potential. Israel and the United States will have to confront it. I do not expect this conflict to end quickly—that is also the view of many experts I follow,” Biedroń concluded.
