The conflict in the Middle East is pushing up global oil prices and, consequently, the cost of jet fuel. Combined with strong demand for air travel and limited ticket supply, this may lead to a temporary increase in airfares. Since the outbreak of the conflict, 90 flights scheduled to operate through Warsaw Chopin Airport have already been cancelled. However, experts emphasize that air traffic will likely be redistributed through other transfer hubs, and once the geopolitical situation stabilizes, flight networks are expected to be quickly restored.
“The situation in the Middle East is worrying on many levels. As the aviation industry, we are also closely monitoring it and feeling its effects to some extent. Only in the longer term will we be able to assess how it develops and what lasting impact it may have on aviation. However, this is a sector that tends to recover very quickly after every crisis,” said Łukasz Chaberski, President of Polish Airports (PPL), in an interview with the Newseria news agency.
One such crisis was the COVID-19 pandemic. According to a report by ACI Europe, European airports surpassed pre-pandemic passenger numbers in 2024, handling a total of 2.5 billion passengers, which represents an increase of 1.8% compared with 2019 levels. Passenger traffic continued to grow in 2025, rising 4.4% year-on-year to 2.6 billion travellers.
“Given the current situation, Warsaw Chopin Airport could potentially lose about 8.5% of its traffic, considering the number of passengers travelling to destinations in the Gulf region. However, in the long term it seems likely that this traffic will be redistributed, for example through other hubs or alternative destinations,” Chaberski said.
The Polish national carrier LOT Polish Airlines has decided to cancel flights to and from Dubai and Tel Aviv until the end of the winter season on March 28. Flights to and from Riyadh will remain suspended until March 16, while connections to Beirut will not operate from March 31 to April 30.
“If we were to lose these connections entirely, it would represent a loss of about PLN 10 million per month. However, this is not a zero-sum situation because these passengers will not disappear entirely. Those who intended to travel to that region will simply choose another destination for point-to-point travel or another transfer hub. It may not be Dubai, but it could be Istanbul, for example,” the PPL president noted.
Istanbul Airport (IGA) is currently the second-largest airport in Europe by passenger numbers. According to ACI Europe, it recorded 5.5% passenger growth in 2025, handling a total of 84.44 million travellers. Over the past five years, passenger traffic at the Turkish hub has increased by nearly 25%.
“We monitor the situation related to the conflict in the Middle East every day in order to estimate potential losses that Polish Airports may have already incurred or may incur. However, this requires more time. We know that 90 flights to and from destinations in that region have been cancelled so far, but flights are slowly resuming. For now, most of them are bringing passengers back to Poland. There are still very few passengers travelling in the opposite direction,” Chaberski added.
On March 12, the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced on social media that nearly 12,000 people have already returned from the Middle East region.
“Aviation continues to grow, and Poles love to travel. There is strong demand for travel, and if destinations connected with the United Arab Emirates remain unavailable, airlines will adapt their offers to meet passenger needs. Alternative connections will be introduced,” the expert said.
The year 2025 was a record-breaking year for Polish airports, which handled just over 66.2 million passengers, according to a summary published by Polish Airports. This represents year-on-year growth of 14.4%, significantly higher than the European average of 4.4%. The coming years are expected to bring further growth. According to IATA forecasts prepared for PPL, Polish airports are projected to handle 73.3 million passengers in 2026, while by 2035 the number is expected to exceed 100 million.
“It seems that once the situation stabilises, or at least once the airspace is considered safe and the relevant institutions approve flights again, passenger traffic will recover very quickly,” said the PPL president.
Since March 4, air traffic in the United Arab Emirates has been gradually and partially restored. The UAE has opened special safe air corridors that allow up to 48 flights per hour. However, many airlines, including Lufthansa, Air France, KLM and British Airways, have temporarily suspended or significantly reduced flights to the UAE.
“Another challenge related to the international situation is the rise in global oil prices. This is a very important cost component for airlines. Many carriers try to protect themselves against this risk through fuel hedging strategies, which guarantee stable jet fuel prices for a certain period,” Chaberski explained.
According to Orlen Aviation, the price of Jet A-1 fuel at Warsaw Chopin Airport reached PLN 4,470 per cubic metre on March 10, 2026. On March 3 the price was PLN 3,040, and before the outbreak of the conflict, on February 24, it stood at PLN 2,950. Fuel is even more expensive at Warsaw-Radom Airport, where a cubic metre costs PLN 5,020 (as of March 10).
“The risk of rising airline ticket prices certainly exists, and each airline develops its own strategy. Profit margins on many routes are already quite limited. In the end, however, it is usually the passenger – the final consumer – who pays for these increases,” said the head of Polish Airports.
In his view, ticket prices may rise, but he hopes the increase will be temporary.
“We know that when demand is high and supply is limited, prices go up. That is a normal market mechanism. At the same time, passengers – especially after the pandemic period – are very eager to travel, and even if it means paying more, they are less willing to abandon their travel plans,” Chaberski concluded.
