Gold has slowed, but money has not disappeared from the market. In April, capital began shifting towards silver and platinum. This may be the most important signal ahead of May.
April brought the first clear cooling of sentiment in the precious metals market after many weeks of strong gains. Following a sharp rally at the beginning of the year, gold entered a correction phase. However, there were no signs of a broad investor retreat from the sector. Instead of capital outflows, the market began to show classic signs of rotation, with some funds moving into assets that had remained in gold’s shadow.
This is an important change, because in mature upward trends money rarely leaves an entire sector at once. More often, it changes location, seeking a better balance between price and potential.
Gold: correction without capitulation
Gold remains the key reference point for the entire market, but April showed that even the strongest assets need a period of rest. After earlier gains, investors took some profits, while the market reacted to a stronger dollar and high US bond yields.
What matters most, however, is what did not happen: there was no panic sell-off. The pullback was orderly, and demand returned during deeper declines. This was confirmed by Swiss customs data released in April, showing that gold exports from Switzerland rose by 30% month-on-month in March, including 57.6 tonnes to London alone and an 18% increase to China.
This suggests that at current price levels, institutional demand and central banks — including the National Bank of Poland, whose gold reserves now stand at nearly 582 tonnes — are creating a firm floor for valuations.
Silver: the first candidate to take the lead
When gold enters consolidation, the market often turns its attention to silver. Historically, silver has often caught up in the second phase of a precious metals rally.
April brought increased interest in silver despite persistently high volatility. For investors, silver combines two narratives: defensive capital protection and exposure to industry, particularly technology and the energy transition. If sentiment towards the sector remains positive in May, silver may outperform gold.
Platinum: the quiet beneficiary of rotation
One of the most interesting moves in April was the improvement in sentiment towards platinum. The metal, undervalued for years, is emerging as a potential leader for the coming months. Its rally is supported by strong fundamentals.
According to the World Platinum Investment Council, the platinum market is expected to remain in deficit in 2026 for the fourth consecutive year, with a projected shortfall of 240,000 ounces. Although this figure is smaller than last year’s record deficit, the cumulative effect is crucial: the physical market has tightened significantly.
Global above-ground stocks have fallen to a level equivalent to only four months of global demand. This means any disruption to supplies from South Africa or Russia could trigger a sharp price increase.
Analysts forecast a 35% rise in demand for platinum coins and bars in 2026. As investors increasingly view gold as an “expensive” asset, they are turning more readily to platinum, seeing potential for it to catch up, especially given the historically low platinum-to-gold price ratio.
Growing use of platinum as a substitute for palladium in catalytic converters, together with the development of hydrogen technologies, means industrial demand is now stronger than at any point in this decade.
Palladium remains on the sidelines
Although the market is still pricing in changes in the automotive sector, palladium is currently extremely oversold. Persistent pessimism means potential mining disruptions could become a trigger for sharp speculative price moves.
In this environment, palladium is still seen as a high-risk asset, but also as a potential opportunity for investors looking for undervalued segments of the market.
Five signals that will decide May
The first key factor is the US dollar and the so-called “Warsh effect”. A positive outcome to Kevin Warsh’s hearings calmed markets about the direction of changes at the Federal Reserve. His pledge to fight debt while supporting liquidity in the financial system suggests that the period of unconditional dollar strength may be coming to an end, opening the way for metals to reach new highs.
The second factor is US bond yields. Gold has strengthened its position as a “currency without credit risk”. Amid the debate over the stability of US debt, investors are beginning to favour bullion over Treasury bonds. If bond yields start to decline, capital may flow strongly into assets that do not carry issuer default risk.
The third signal is ETF inflows. In April, despite the price correction, ETFs recorded positive balances. This is a key indication that institutional capital is treating current declines as a buying opportunity rather than a reason to exit the market.
The fourth factor is physical demand in Asia. Swiss export data to China confirms that the East continues to buy bullion. This physical foundation stabilises the global market and limits the risk of deeper corrections.
The fifth signal is the gold-to-silver ratio. The ratio is in a downward trend, indicating that silver is beginning to rise faster than gold. If this trend continues in May, it could confirm that cheaper metals are taking the initiative.
Scenarios for May
In the base-case scenario, gold stabilises in the range of USD 4,600–4,750, building a base for the next move. At the same time, investor attention shifts to silver and platinum, which, thanks to strong industrial fundamentals, record stronger growth momentum than the yellow metal.
In the positive scenario, a weaker dollar and falling bond yields after the Fed’s May decisions trigger a rally across the entire sector, with gold again testing the USD 5,000 level.
In the cautious scenario, continued dollar strength extends the cooling phase in gold. Precious metals remain in a sideways trend, but capital rotation within the sector — from “expensive” gold into “cheaper” platinum — partly cushions sentiment and prevents deeper declines.
Expert comment
“The biggest mistake would be to treat April as a weak month for precious metals only because gold stopped rising so dynamically. In reality, the market showed something much more interesting: capital did not leave the sector, it only began changing positions,” said Łukasz Wydra, analyst at Cashify Gold.
“The key term this month is ‘currency without credit risk’. In the face of Kevin Warsh’s hearings and rising US debt, gold has ceased to be seen merely as a commodity and has started to be treated as a safeguard for the system. This change in perception allowed funds to rotate safely towards silver and platinum. May may be the month when the leader in growth momentum changes. If gold remains stable above key support levels, the industrial fundamentals of silver and the platinum deficit will attract the greatest attention from institutional capital in May,” Wydra added.
