May saw a clear revival in the housing market. Developers operating in the seven largest markets in Poland recorded a sales increase of up to 30% compared to April. According to preliminary data from Otodom, developers sold over 3,700 apartments. Meanwhile, the secondary market continues to show a slowdown: the number of new listings is decreasing, and buyer interest in second-hand apartments is weakening.
Not Just Lower Interest Rates
On May 7, the Monetary Policy Council lowered interest rates by 50 basis points for the first time in over a year and a half. For some parts of the market, this was a long-awaited decision. But did it actually move the housing market? At first glance, the answer seems obvious.
As Katarzyna Kuniewicz, Otodom’s Market Research Director, reminds us: “We’ve already seen how strongly the housing market can react to interest rate cuts. Just look back to the second half of 2020 and early 2021. After three consecutive rate cuts, the NBP’s interest rates fell to a record low of 0.1%. As a result, apartment sales in the seven largest Polish markets started growing month over month, reaching a peak growth rate of even 40% month over month.”
Is history repeating itself? Otodom’s developer market monitoring in mid-May already indicated an above-average level of apartment reservations — close to the excellent 2023 results. Although mid-month sales data did not yet clearly confirm such a strong revival, they were noticeably higher than the averages from previous months.
“We know buyers can surprise not only salespeople but also market analysts by changing their minds, sometimes withdrawing from reservations just before signing the developer agreement. Therefore, the high reservation level from early May was treated as an important signal, not a definitive revival announcement. Especially since many new projects also entered the market at the same time, so the reservation jump could simply reflect new attractive offers rather than a direct reaction to the MPC decision,” Kuniewicz notes.
Sales Strongly Up
The second half of May was equally strong in sales as the first. As a result, May was surprisingly successful for developers active in Poland’s seven largest housing markets. The surprise comes not only from the number of apartments sold but also from their value, which exceeded PLN 3 billion for the first time since October 2023.
Preliminary Otodom data analysis for Warsaw, Kraków, Łódź, Poznań, Wrocław, the Tri-City, and Katowice shows a significant 30% sales increase compared to April. Moreover, this May’s result clearly exceeds last year’s when sales did not exceed 2,700 transactions. This time, sales surpassed 3,700 — over a thousand more than in May 2024.
As Kuniewicz emphasizes, “We must not forget that this record month-to-month sales increase consisted of two factors. First, some buyers accelerated purchase decisions triggered by the MPC’s rate cut. Second, more buyers withdrew from purchases recorded in April. Consequently, the revised April sales at the end of May were below 2,900 apartments (preliminary results indicated over 3,100), reducing the comparison base for May sales.”
Supply also shows revival. Developers launched sales of over 5,200 apartments in new projects in May alone. The most projects appeared in Warsaw (1,300 apartments), Tri-City (1,100 apartments), and Kraków (1,100 apartments). While such scale is expected for Warsaw and Tri-City, where offer sell-out times don’t exceed 5 quarters (typical is 4-5 quarters), the over 7-quarter rate in Kraków is worrying. The dynamic flow of new projects in Kraków has led to a record-high supply of apartments, reaching 10,500 units by the end of May.
“Average prices in new projects launched in May are noticeably higher than in April and May last year. This means that despite rising activity, the prospect of significant price reductions, which many buyers hope for, is still distant,” says Kuniewicz.
Record supply levels were also noted by Otodom in Poznań and Katowice, where developers have never offered so many apartments (7,400 and 5,300 units, respectively). Łódź and Wrocław are close to record levels as well (8,400 and 9,100), though Łódź has seen a record streak over recent months, while Wrocław’s record dates back to late 2019. Only Warsaw and Tri-City offer apartment volumes (14,600 and 6,800) consistent with their typical market levels.
Consequently, the aggregated supply across the seven largest markets at May-end exceeded 62,000 units (62,100 apartments), a 37% increase compared to May 2024 and 3% more than the previous month.
Alongside the growing supply, the year-over-year pace of average apartment price growth across the seven markets is slowing. The average apartment offered in late May was 54 m², with a total price slightly over PLN 809,000 — only 2% higher than in May 2024. The average price per square meter shows a similar trend, still rising but more slowly (4.1% increase in May vs. 4.6% in April). Notably, the total price increase is about half that of the price per square meter (2% vs. 4%), due to a decline in average apartment size from 56 m² in May 2024 to 54 m² in May 2025.
Analyzing price changes on each of the seven markets highlights Wrocław’s unique situation. May was the only market where average prices fell slightly month-over-month and compared to May 2024. Although the drop was minimal (less than 1%), it is worth noting since Wrocław’s average prices have been declining monthly since October 2024, indicating how long it takes for market price corrections under no subsidy conditions across a 12-month period.
Less Optimism in the Secondary Market
While developers clearly accelerated in May, the secondary market took a different path. Otodom data indicate continued slowdown in supply and demand. Between May 1 and 26, nearly 47,000 used apartment listings were published in the seven largest cities — 6% fewer than in April but 16% more than a year ago. Warsaw, Kraków, and Wrocław saw the most listings, with the biggest year-over-year increases in Poznań (+34%) and Łódź (+24%).
“The drop in new listings in May may result from longer listing durations on portals. Fewer transactions mean less turnover, reducing the need to post new offers. The secondary market reacts more slowly and cautiously. However, despite this slowdown, the total number of available used apartments remains clearly higher than last year,” notes Otodom housing market expert Milena Chełchowska.
Demand also cooled slightly. By month-end, responses to listings totaled 67,000. If the late-May pace holds, user activity will decline about 4% compared to April. Łódź will see the steepest drop (~13% month-over-month).
Price-wise, the secondary market remains stable. Average asking prices in May barely changed. Moderate year-over-year increases were noted in Katowice (+5%) and Warsaw (+2%). Prices in Kraków, Poznań, and Wrocław remained at last year’s levels, while Łódź saw a slight decline.
Source: https://ceo.com.pl/majowe-ozywienie-na-rynku-pierwotnym-rynek-wtorny-mieszkan-wyhamowuje-19450
