Investors entered Wednesday’s session with mixed emotions. On one hand, U.S. President Donald Trump has once again stoked trade tensions by imposing fresh tariffs, but on the other, surprising strength in U.S. labor market data offered a boost to market sentiment. In Poland, attention is firmly fixed on the upcoming decision by the Monetary Policy Council (RPP).
Tariff Tensions Return
The topic of trade wars refuses to go away. On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a doubling of tariffs on steel and aluminum, raising the rates to 50%. These new tariffs come into force today. While the White House emphasized it remains open to negotiations, the move has reignited concerns among global markets. It’s worth noting that the U.S. is the world’s largest importer of steel, with roughly one-quarter of its consumption sourced from foreign suppliers. These tariff hikes will hit Canada hardest, but Germany, South Korea, and Japan are also among the key economies affected.
Markets are also awaiting the outcome of ongoing U.S.–China trade discussions. Sentiment here remains cautiously optimistic, with investors hoping for progress rather than escalation. However, recent mutual accusations of violating earlier agreements have cast a shadow over negotiations.
JOLTS Report Lifts the Dollar
The tariff headlines were overshadowed by a strong U.S. JOLTS report, which revealed 7.39 million job openings—beating forecasts by nearly 300,000. The previous reading was also revised upward, further underscoring strength in the U.S. labor market. With the job market now seen as a key driver of Federal Reserve policy, these figures are prompting a rethink of future interest rate cuts.
Just a month ago, options markets priced in over a 50% chance of a rate cut in July. Today, that probability has halved, with expectations now shifting toward a potential move in September. Investors are scaling back bets on aggressive monetary easing.
Poland Awaits RPP Decision
Poland won’t have to wait much longer for its own rate changes. While a cut is unlikely to be announced today, markets are increasingly confident that the RPP will lower rates in July. Several recent indicators support this view.
Inflation is quickly returning to the National Bank of Poland’s (NBP) target level—faster than previously anticipated. As a result, markets are beginning to expect a steeper trajectory of rate cuts. The key issue today is whether the post-meeting statement signals a dovish turn in sentiment among RPP members.
However, the spotlight will truly be on tomorrow’s press conference with RPP Chairman Adam Glapiński. Any suggestion of more aggressive easing is expected to weigh on the Polish złoty. For now, the currency remains relatively stable following yesterday’s slight decline. As of late morning, the U.S. dollar is trading at 3.755 PLN, while the euro stands at 4.28 PLN.
Afternoon Highlights
Later today, attention will shift to several important data releases. In addition to the RPP’s statement, Canada’s central bank is also scheduled to deliver its policy update. The ADP employment report will be closely watched as well, especially if it confirms Tuesday’s strong JOLTS figures. Also worth monitoring is the ISM Services PMI report from the U.S., due out at 4:00 PM CET.
Author: Krzysztof Adamczak – Analyst at InternetowyKantor.pl
Source: CEO.com.pl – “Kurs dolara rośnie po JOLTS. Rynek czeka na decyzję RPP”
