Monday’s trading session on the Warsaw Stock Exchange is shaped largely by expectations around Poland’s core inflation reading, due this afternoon. In the background, global markets are counting down to Wednesday’s key events: Nvidia’s earnings and the release of the FOMC minutes – both of which could shift sentiment on the dollar and across emerging markets. For now, FX remains calm ahead of potential turbulence: EUR/USD sits near $1.16, while the Polish zloty trades in narrow ranges against both the euro and the dollar.
Core Inflation in the Spotlight
Monday’s session is dominated by anticipation of the latest core inflation figure, set for release at 2:00 p.m. Core inflation, which strips out the most volatile components (such as food and energy), is widely seen as a more reliable guide for the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) than headline CPI. Today’s data will complete the picture following last week’s confirmation of CPI by Statistics Poland (GUS), offering insight into how deeply disinflation is spreading into services and durable goods.
Markets are not expecting major surprises – any stronger reactions are more likely in November and December readings, when seasonal effects come into play. Analysts forecast a result around 2.9%, which would mark the first drop below 3% in nearly six years. The key question is whether disinflationary forces are finally taking hold in the services sector, which has been persistently pushing inflation upward.
A Calm Start to the Week
The weekend brought no major market-moving developments, but investors return to trading with a concise list of priorities: Nvidia’s earnings and the broader question of whether the “AI corporate cycle” can continue supporting sentiment toward the tech sector, which has shown signs of wobbling. Added to this is the prospect of fresh guidance from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
There is also an ongoing debate about whether this year’s Wall Street rally may have outpaced the trajectory of corporate earnings. For now, this is more of a risk recalibration than a directional shift, leading to a cautious tone on Monday morning. Markets are waiting for hard data and clear policy signals – without these, strong moves in major currency pairs are unlikely. Against this backdrop, gold and oil are trading quietly, and attention is shifting toward the mid-week calendar.
A Dense Week Ahead
This could turn into a highly eventful week. On Wednesday, Nvidia releases its quarterly report, followed by the FOMC minutes at 8:00 p.m., which should clarify how the Fed currently assesses the balance of risks after recent decisions. Also on Wednesday, the UK’s October CPI reading will offer insight into how close the British economy is to its inflation target – a key factor for the pound ahead of the Bank of England’s December meeting.
Friday brings preliminary PMI data for major economies – typically a tone-setting set of indicators for the following Monday. In the U.S., the calendar still includes delayed or rescheduled releases, but markets will remain focused on the combination of Big Tech earnings and the interest-rate outlook emerging from the minutes.
In other words, Wednesday and Friday are shaping up to be the main flashpoints for dollar performance and emerging-market sentiment. For now, currency pairs remain in a subdued, post-weekend mode: EUR/USD tests the $1.16 area, EUR/PLN hovers around 4.224, while USD/PLN edges toward 3.641 – moves that appear more tentative than directional.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this publication is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or any other form of guidance, is general in nature and is not directed at any specific individual. Before acting on any information, independent advice should be sought.
Source: CEO.com.pl
