Everything seems to suggest that the Americans will strike this weekend. But under the rule of “constant surprise,” does that mean they won’t? Data from Poland is weighing on the zloty, while the US trade deficit has rebounded in a worrying way.
Markets brace for an attack
Many analysts argue that a US strike on Iran could take place this weekend. Observers disagree on the potential scale of force, but they are broadly aligned on the timing. The Olympics end on Friday, and—oddly enough—refraining from warfare during the Games is still treated in some regions as a customary obligation. Even Putin waited until the Beijing Winter Olympics ended before launching the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
The weekend timing is also supported by the fact that the US administration tends to carry out operations of this kind when markets are closed. That gives investors some time to digest the news, potentially reducing immediate destabilization. The same approach was seen during the Venezuela operation earlier this year.
Of course, there is also a scenario in which the Iranian regime yields under pressure. The question is whether the authorities—already under intense domestic strain and suppressing protests with extreme brutality—could survive such concessions. Many analysts fear the leadership has been pushed into a corner and may feel it has no real choice.
As tensions rise, the US dollar is strengthening against other currencies, broadly in line with expectations.
Data from Poland
Yesterday we received a package of domestic data—not only wage figures, but also industrial output and construction-and-assembly production.
Industrial production, according to analysts, was expected to grow by 2% year-on-year. Not spectacular, but at least positive. Instead, it fell by 1.5%. Construction-and-assembly output also disappointed: a 5% decline had been forecast, yet the drop reached as much as 12.8%.
With results like these, it is hard to paint an optimistic picture. Investors, seeing a significant risk that Poland may not sustain its current strong pace of GDP growth, viewed the zloty less favorably. Following the release, the euro rose, and for the first time since the beginning of February it took 4.2250 PLN to buy one euro.
Data from across the Atlantic
Macro releases are somewhat drowned out by the prospect of a conflict, but it is worth noting that the US trade deficit has widened again. After falling in October to “just” USD 30 billion, it jumped to USD 70 billion in December. That is still roughly half of the record seen in March 2025.
Initial jobless claims looked better, although some analysts suggest this may be linked to the current administration’s firm anti-deportation policy.
Today’s macro calendar
- 14:30 — United States — GDP
- 14:30 — Canada — Retail sales
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