The past two years have spoiled us bankers with results that, in many cases, were driven more by market gravity than by outstanding strategies. High net profits, record ROE levels, and a strong net interest margin (NIM) created an environment in which performance improved faster than the pressure to raise operational efficiency. A favorable macro backdrop—high interest rates and stable demand—acted as a natural buffer, allowing many business models to operate without the need for deep structural change.
2026 will be a moment of truth. It will reveal to what extent individual banks have built business models resilient to falling interest rates—and to what extent they have merely benefited from an unusually favorable market configuration. It will also test whether we are able to think about the future with ambition while keeping both feet firmly on the ground.
In 2026, shrinking margins, rising regulatory costs (FIDA, PSD3, DORA, ESG), increasing fiscal pressure, and a more informed customer will create an environment in which technology—including AI—will stop being a narrative and become a tool of measurable business efficiency. Artificial intelligence will not replace effective sales, just as EU regulation is not simply another “box to tick” for compliance.
To understand the dynamics of 2026, we need to move beyond simple macro indicators and look at the structure of forces that will shape Poland’s banking sector.
Poland’s Economy in 2026: Between Growth and Rising Cost Pressure
In 2026, the engine of the Polish economy will run on two unevenly loaded cylinders: private consumption and public investment fueled by funds from the National Recovery Plan (KPO).
First, private consumption. Although the pace of growth in real incomes and consumption will slow in 2026 compared with the very strong readings of previous years, Polish consumers will remain a key driver of economic activity. Low unemployment—among the lowest in the EU—supports a sense of security and encourages spending. At the same time, the consumer credit market is largely saturated, and customer acquisition costs are rising.
Second, investment. The unlocking of EU funds—both as grants and as low-cost loans from the KPO (over EUR 29 billion in loans versus EUR 25 billion in grants)—will provide a powerful investment impulse. This is good news for corporate banking and the SME segment. Entrepreneurs will need bridge financing, equity contributions, and working capital to service new contracts. This is where banks that can quickly assess project risk and offer flexible financing have a real opportunity.
Monetary Policy and Pressure on Net Interest Margin
The National Bank of Poland’s projections and market analyses suggest that in 2026 inflation will finally move within the acceptable deviation band around the inflation target. That will allow the Monetary Policy Council to continue its interest-rate cutting cycle.
A business model built on so-called recurring liabilities—that is, “free” balances in current accounts which, in a 5.75% rate environment, generated huge low-risk profits—will come under pressure. The spread between the cost of funding and returns on assets will narrow. Banks will need to return to competing for customers and loan volumes, and we will see who chooses to combine that with a willingness to accept higher credit risk.
Fiscal Pressure and the Capital Allocation Dilemma
We cannot ignore the geopolitical elephant in the room. In 2026 Poland will spend record sums on defense—more than 4–5% of GDP—which will translate into a high budget deficit.
What does this mean for banks? The State Treasury will drain capital from the market by issuing bonds on a large scale. Banks will face a classic asset-allocation dilemma: place funds in safe government securities or finance the real economy while accepting a higher level of risk.
Fiscal pressure may constrain the supply of credit to the private sector. At the same time, defense spending will stimulate selected industries, creating room for specialized corporate and project financing—available mainly to banks that can manage risk and capital with precision.
AI in 2026: From Hype to a New Driver of Efficiency
In 2024 and 2025, we all got swept up in generative AI. For many institutions, it was enough to say “we have AI” to claim transformation had begun. In 2026, the era of experiments will gradually end and the era of production deployments will begin.
We will move from simple “chatbots” that could only answer questions (often incorrectly) to Agentic AI. AI agents are autonomous systems that not only process information but also perform tasks inside IT systems—likely including banking systems. In 2026, AI will stop being a marketing gadget and may become a primary engine for reducing the cost-to-income ratio. Banks will try to automate the back office: compliance, AML, preliminary credit-risk assessment, and the execution of customer instructions.
But the real change will not stop in the back office. The greatest potential of Agentic AI will emerge in direct customer relationships. In the coming years, interacting with a bank will stop resembling “filling out forms” and start becoming a dialogue—dynamic, contextual, and conducted in real time. Credit processes, financial decisions, and everyday service will no longer be a sequence of screens, but a smooth conversation with a system that understands intent and can translate it into action.
Shifting the Model: From Coders to Product Builders
This is not a story about IT culture—it is a story about a bank’s economics. For years, technology primarily served as operational support: teams maintaining complex systems. In 2026, that model will increasingly fail to defend itself financially.
It is widely believed that developers are expensive. The facts confirm it—engineers’ wages are rising, and that pressure will still be felt in 2026 despite slower growth rates. At the same time, banks need more and more of them because for years they built architectures based on layered, often ad-hoc integrated technologies: legacy systems, mainframes, and successive “overlays.” The result is technical debt that does not disappear—it is repaid systematically through growing maintenance costs.
The need to shift priorities is therefore becoming clearer: from technology treated solely as an operational support function toward technology that co-creates business value. In that approach, engineering capabilities work not only for system stability, but also for scalability, efficiency, and long-term profitability.
Final Thought: It’s Time to Replace Experiments With Deliberate Choices
Banks will have to decide whether they invest in “real AI”—AI that genuinely improves process efficiency and decision quality—or whether they remain with expensive, image-driven toys. At the same time, it will be crucial to prepare organizations for the new regulatory framework, including FIDA, while maintaining cost discipline.
Competitive advantage will also be determined by the ability to attract and retain engineering talent—not as a back-office IT function but as product co-creators—and by consistent focus on the customer, whose expectations in 2026 will be far higher than during the era of easy results.
2026 will be the year of pragmatic visionaries: leaders who can combine technological ambition with responsible management of capital and costs—in a world where Agentic AI stops being an experiment and becomes part of the business model.
Source: https://ceo.com.pl/banki-w-2026-spada-nim-rosna-regulacje-ai-ma-dowiezc-efektywnosc-64408
