According to the latest data from Statistics Poland (GUS), published today at 9:30 a.m., retail sales at constant prices in March 2026 were 8.7% higher than a year earlier, compared with a 0.3% decline in March 2025. Compared with February 2026, retail sales increased by 18.1%.
In e-commerce, the value of online retail sales at current prices in March 2026 was 17.3% higher than a year earlier, while the share of online sales in total retail sales increased from 9.0% to 9.6% compared with the same period a year ago. At the end of February, that share stood at 9.3%.
The latest figures were commented on by experts from Univio, Finax and Digitree Group.
Sebastian Błaszkiewicz, Head of Sales Excellence at Univio
A hot shopping basket in online stores at the start of a cold spring. E-commerce moves back toward a double-digit share of retail
March is usually a time when consumption begins to awaken, but this year the arrival of calendar spring did not bring a noticeable improvement in the weather. What did improve significantly, however, was the climate in e-commerce. The latest GUS data show the share of e-commerce in retail sales at a level that points to a clear rebound after the winter slowdown and a return toward the double-digit threshold for online market share.
Polish consumers are increasingly moving their March shopping into digital channels, and e-commerce is growing clearly faster than the retail market as a whole. Paradoxically, bad weather is working partly in favor of online stores. With the winter chill lingering, consumers are less willing to travel to shopping malls and spend more time at home and online. Spring cleaning and Easter preparations were increasingly visible not in crowded store aisles, but in online baskets: customers were updating wardrobes, refreshing their homes, planning their holiday tables, and comparing offers without leaving the house. This is a good foundation for cementing e-commerce’s share at close to 10% of total retail trade.
At the same time, the first months of 2026 show that this is not a comfortable year for retail. The war in Iran and tensions in the region are driving up freight, energy and insurance prices, which directly translates into more expensive logistics and pressure on retailers’ margins. Global giants are responding in very concrete ways. Amazon, for example, is introducing and tightening charges related to returns and order handling, signaling the end of the era of “cost-free” logistics built around free returns and almost always free delivery. For Polish online stores, this means a need for much more precise calculations as well — determining when free delivery is a real competitive advantage and when it becomes an expensive privilege that cannot always be afforded. Increasingly, that boundary is being set not by commercial instinct, but by algorithms. Advanced analytics and AI-based solutions now help businesses simulate cost scenarios in near real time, forecast demand, and optimize promotional policies and free-shipping thresholds at the level of individual customer segments and product categories.
On top of that, domestic businesses are facing new obligations under the SENT system. A regulation intended to tighten control over trade in sensitive goods in practice means more reporting for many e-commerce companies, a greater risk of errors, and additional costs associated with handling parts of their assortment — precisely at a time when energy and transport costs are already rising. It is therefore hardly surprising that the industry is voicing increasingly strong opposition to the addition of further layers of formal obligations.
Dominik Baldowski, market analyst at Finax
We are seeing a consumer boom, but price pressure is not letting up
Households are still operating in an environment of elevated inflation and uncertainty about the path of interest rates, triggered by the partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. CPI inflation at around 3% marks a clear improvement compared with previous years, but it still remains above the National Bank of Poland’s target. Moreover, the central bank’s March projection suggests that the process of returning to the stable 2.5% level will be gradual, and price pressure will not disappear completely in the short term. In practice, this means that the purchasing power of money will continue to decline, although more slowly than it did not long ago.
Looking more broadly, a possible slowdown in the cycle of interest rate cuts caused by the situation in the Middle East is also changing the investment environment. Falling rates translate into lower bond yields, and therefore lower profit potential from safe debt instruments in the future. On the other hand, such an environment has historically been supportive for equity markets — a lower cost of capital supports company valuations and encourages investors to seek higher returns. Against this background, even very strong retail sales data showing a clear revival in consumption do not change the key conclusion from the perspective of household finances: skillful budget management understood solely as saving may not be enough. With inflation at 3%, funds held in low-interest accounts are still losing value in real terms. That is why an active approach to personal finance is becoming increasingly important. Portfolio diversification, including both debt instruments and exposure to the equity market, is becoming a natural direction. Over the long term, exposure to global economic growth through ETFs offers the greatest opportunity for real capital appreciation. The current macroeconomic environment favors investors who think strategically — not only protecting savings against inflation, but actively using changing market conditions to build wealth.
Krystian Brambor, digital advertising market expert at INIS (Digitree Group)
March market data confirm that Poland’s e-commerce sector is in a phase of rapid development. We are currently observing a phenomenon in which online sales are growing at a pace almost four times higher than broad retail sales in the economy. With inflation at 3%, such strong growth in online turnover points to real, structural demand growth rather than merely the effect of higher goods prices.
An analysis of the purchasing structure shows that the main engine of the sector is the number of transactions completed, which is growing at a double-digit pace. At the same time, the average value of a single shopping basket remains far more stable. This means that consumers are increasingly treating online shopping as a standard, everyday way of purchasing goods, further strengthening the position of e-commerce in the shopping habits of Polish consumers.
One of the most interesting trends is the growing role of cross-border sales. At present, nearly every fifth złoty spent in Polish e-commerce already comes from foreign customers. This shows that domestic companies are increasingly effective at using modern logistics and digital sales channels to compete successfully in international markets. Cross-border sales are ceasing to be a niche and are becoming a permanent part of the business strategy of many Polish companies.
It should be remembered, however, that March growth is seasonal in nature. The sharp increase in orders compared with February is a typical sign of “spring acceleration,” supported by the holiday period and a higher number of working days. Particularly strong growth was recorded in categories related to the home, including furniture, consumer electronics and household appliances, as well as textiles, clothing and footwear.
In the coming months, the pace of growth in online retail sales is likely to stabilize. Although the outlook for the Polish e-commerce market remains optimistic — with growth expected to exceed the European average — the current record readings show that Polish online retail still has considerable room for further scaling. The key variable for continued development will remain companies’ operational efficiency, enabling them to handle growing order volumes while maintaining sales profitability.
