In June 2026, business sentiment in Poland’s Małopolskie voivodeship weakened or stabilised across most surveyed sectors. The sharpest decline in the business climate indicator was recorded in manufacturing, while the strongest improvement was seen in accommodation and food services. Companies in the information and communication sector assessed their situation most positively, while transport and storage remained the most pessimistic sector.
Małopolskie: Business Sentiment Weaker Than in May, but Some Sectors Remain Positive
The June business tendency survey by Statistics Poland shows that entrepreneurs in Małopolskie entered the holiday period with greater caution. In most areas of the regional economy analysed in the survey, the general business climate indicator either weakened or remained broadly stable compared with the previous month.
The largest decline was recorded in manufacturing, where the indicator fell by 6.4 points. A clear improvement was seen only in accommodation and food services, where the indicator increased by 3.3 points compared with May.
The most pessimistic opinions were reported by companies operating in transport and storage. In this sector, the general business climate indicator stood at minus 6.6. Importantly, despite the negative result, it was still better than the long-term average for the sector, which stands at minus 8.1.
The best assessments came from companies in information and communication. In June, the indicator reached plus 13.9, remaining above the long-term average of plus 11.6.
Manufacturing Still Positive, but Clearly Losing Momentum
In manufacturing, the general business climate indicator stood at plus 2.6 in June, compared with plus 9.0 a month earlier. This was the sharpest deterioration among all surveyed sectors in Małopolskie.
The decline affected both assessments of the current situation and expectations for the coming months. The diagnostic component fell from plus 5.4 to plus 2.0, while the forecast component dropped from plus 12.6 to plus 3.2.
Manufacturing therefore remains on the positive side, but companies’ optimism has weakened significantly.
Compared with June 2025, the picture is also less favourable. A year earlier, the manufacturing indicator stood at plus 7.7. The current result is also below the long-term average for the sector, which is plus 6.6.
Construction Loses Momentum but Remains Above Zero
In construction, the general business climate indicator reached plus 2.3 in June, down from plus 5.9 in May. The sector still assessed its situation slightly positively, but the momentum of sentiment clearly weakened.
The diagnostic component declined from plus 5.3 to plus 2.1, while the forecast component fell from plus 6.4 to plus 2.5. This means that construction companies assessed both current business conditions and prospects for the coming months less favourably than in May.
Against the long-term benchmark, however, construction still looks relatively strong. The long-term average for the sector is minus 5.0, which means that June’s result remained clearly above the historical reference level.
Wholesale Trade Shows a Slight Improvement
Wholesale trade was one of the few sectors in which the general business climate indicator improved. In June, it stood at plus 2.3, compared with plus 1.3 in May.
The improvement was mainly driven by a better assessment of the current situation. The diagnostic component rose from minus 2.5 to plus 0.9. Expectations remained positive, although slightly weaker than a month earlier, with the forecast component falling from plus 5.0 to plus 3.7.
The result for wholesale trade was better than a year earlier, when the indicator stood at minus 1.1. It was also above the long-term average of minus 0.4.
Retail Trade Falls Below Zero
Retail trade saw a clear deterioration in June. The general business climate indicator fell from minus 0.6 in May to minus 5.2.
Retail companies assessed the current situation particularly poorly. The diagnostic component stood at minus 7.3, compared with minus 1.1 a month earlier. Expectations also deteriorated, with the forecast component falling from 0.0 to minus 3.1.
Retail trade was one of only two sectors, alongside transport, where the overall business climate indicator was negative in June. The current result was also weaker than the long-term average for the sector, which stands at minus 2.7.
Transport Remains the Weakest Sector
The most pessimistic sentiment continued to be recorded in transport and storage. The general business climate indicator stood at minus 6.6, compared with minus 6.1 in May.
The assessment of the current situation improved, with the diagnostic component rising from minus 3.3 to plus 0.8. The problem, however, lies in expectations. The forecast component fell to minus 13.9, compared with minus 8.9 in May.
This means that transport companies assessed current conditions slightly better, but looked at the coming months with greater concern. Compared with June of the previous year, however, the situation was clearly better. At that time, the indicator stood at minus 12.2.
Tourism and Food Services Record the Strongest Improvement
The strongest improvement in business sentiment was recorded in accommodation and food services. The general business climate indicator increased from plus 4.7 in May to plus 8.0 in June.
Both the current assessment and expectations improved. The diagnostic component rose from minus 0.8 to plus 4.9, while the forecast component increased from plus 10.1 to plus 11.1.
This represents a very clear change compared with June 2025, when the indicator for the sector stood at minus 4.7. The current result was also significantly better than the long-term average of minus 6.3. The data are consistent with the seasonal increase in tourism and food service activity ahead of the summer holiday period.
Information and Communication Remains the Sentiment Leader
Information and communication remained the best-rated sector in Małopolskie. In June, the general business climate indicator stood at plus 13.9. It was slightly lower than in May, when it reached plus 14.2, but it remained the highest among all analysed sectors.
The diagnostic component stood at plus 22.3, showing a very positive assessment of the current situation by companies in the sector. Importantly, expectations improved, with the forecast component rising from plus 2.9 to plus 5.5.
The information and communication sector also remained above its long-term average of plus 11.6. This means that technology and communication-related companies continued to stand out positively against the broader regional economy.
Labour Market: Most Companies Plan to Maintain Employment
Additional questions from Statistics Poland concerning the labour market show that most companies in Małopolskie do not plan major staffing changes over the next three months.
For employees who are relatively easy to replace, the intention to maintain employment was declared by 76.6% of manufacturing companies, 90.3% of construction firms, 90.8% of wholesale trade companies, 83.2% of retail trade firms and 84.2% of service companies.
The highest share of companies planning to reduce employment in this group was recorded in manufacturing, at 13.7%, and in retail trade, at 12.7%.
For employees who are difficult to replace, companies were even more inclined to maintain current staffing levels. This answer was indicated by 97.3% of wholesale trade companies, 93.0% of construction firms, 90.4% of retail trade companies and 90.2% of manufacturing firms.
Wages Depend Mainly on Companies’ Financial Situation
The most important factor influencing wage levels over the next three months will be the financial situation of companies. It was indicated as an important factor by 67.5% of manufacturing firms, 62.9% of construction companies, 69.1% of wholesale trade firms, 68.9% of retail trade companies and 62.1% of service companies.
The second important factor remains the need to maintain the real value of wages, meaning inflation-related pay increases. This was indicated by 48.3% of manufacturing firms, 53.5% of construction companies, 45.0% of wholesale trade firms, 45.1% of retail trade companies and 45.8% of service companies.
The importance of wage competitiveness was particularly visible in wholesale trade, where it was indicated by 38.0% of companies, as well as in construction and services, where the share was around 30%.
Companies Base Decisions Mainly on Current Data
Entrepreneurs in Małopolskie make employment and wage decisions primarily on the basis of current data. This factor was indicated as important by 68.6% of manufacturing firms, 68.4% of wholesale trade companies, 63.6% of retail trade firms and 60.6% of service companies.
In construction, the share was lower, at 49.7%. At the same time, more than 40% of companies in each analysed sector declared that they also take into account expectations for changes over a longer period, meaning roughly one year.
Małopolskie Economy Avoids a Sharp Downturn, but Firms Are More Cautious
The June data do not point to a sharp deterioration across the entire economy of Małopolskie. They do, however, show a clear cooling of sentiment in some sectors. This is most visible in manufacturing and retail trade. Transport remains the weakest sector, although its result is better than the long-term average.
Information and communication, as well as accommodation and food services, stand out positively. The first sector continues to record the highest level of business assessments in the region, while the second is benefiting from a clear improvement in sentiment ahead of the summer holiday season.
The labour market remains stable. Most companies intend to maintain employment, especially in the case of workers who are difficult to replace. Wage decisions, meanwhile, will depend mainly on the financial condition of companies.
Source: Statistics Poland.
