Technology companies from the so-called Magnificent 7 have recovered their recent losses. Since the March 27 low, the group’s index has risen by nearly 19%, offsetting an earlier 17% decline from its October peak. This rebound, however, has not occurred in a calm environment. Markets are simultaneously reacting to developments related to Iran, leadership changes at Apple, and a new phase in the AI race involving Amazon. According to the eToro Individual Investor Pulse survey, Polish investors no longer view the Magnificent 7 as an almost automatic way to outperform the market.
The index of the Magnificent 7 is now above pre-decline levels, although the scale of the rebound varies significantly between companies. Amazon has posted the strongest recovery since March 27, up 22%. It is followed by Alphabet at 16%, NVIDIA at 14%, Meta Platforms at 13%, and Microsoft at 12%. Apple has gained 7%, while Tesla has risen by just 2%. This divergence is important—it shows that while the Magnificent 7 are still growing as a group, performance remains highly uneven. The same pattern is visible in year-to-date results: Amazon, Alphabet, NVIDIA, Meta, and Apple are in positive territory, while Microsoft is down more than 11% and Tesla about 10%.
Just recently, markets attempted to rally on positive news related to the Iran conflict. The brief reopening of the Strait of Hormuz added momentum to last week’s equity rally, but when the route was closed again, sentiment deteriorated on Monday. This illustrates the fragile nature of the current rebound. Investors are reacting to positive headlines, yet there is growing concern that markets may be overly optimistic about the outlook.
At the same time, company-specific developments are adding further complexity. Apple announced that Tim Cook will step down as CEO, with John Ternus set to take over on September 1. This transition comes as Apple’s shares remain around 38% higher than a year ago, meaning any leadership change will also serve as a test of current valuations. Another major development concerns Amazon, whose shares rose about 3% in after-hours trading following reports that the company plans to invest up to an additional $25 billion in Anthropic to expand its AI infrastructure.
On Wall Street, expectations remain optimistic, with earnings of the Magnificent 7 projected to grow by 19% this year, compared to 17% for the broader S&P 500. However, risks remain. The ceasefire in the Middle East is expiring, and analysts warn that excessive confidence could result in a correction similar to that seen in 2022. Market concentration also remains high—more than half of the recent gains in the S&P 500 have been driven by just seven companies: NVIDIA, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Apple, and Broadcom, the latter not officially part of the Magnificent 7.
Against this backdrop, sentiment among Polish individual investors is particularly noteworthy. According to the eToro survey, confidence in the Magnificent 7 was strong in the fourth quarter of 2025, with 54% of respondents expecting the group to outperform the broader market. Of these, 14% anticipated a significant outperformance, while 40% expected a moderate edge.
However, the beginning of 2026 brought a clear cooling of sentiment. In the first quarter, the share of optimists dropped to 43%. At the same time, 34% of respondents expected the Magnificent 7 to perform in line with the market, while 14% anticipated underperformance relative to the S&P 500. For the first time, the group of investors not expecting outperformance (48%) exceeded those who still believed in it (43%). This suggests that while the Magnificent 7 remain attractive, they are no longer seen as an obvious source of excess returns.
Confidence remains strongest among Generation Z investors. Among those aged 18–27, 48% expect the group to outperform the market, with 16% anticipating a significant advantage. Millennials appear the most neutral, with 40% expecting performance in line with the market. Generation X remains cautious, while baby boomers are the most skeptical—although 43% still expect outperformance, as many as 20% anticipate weaker results than the broader index.
This shift in sentiment may be the most telling aspect of the current situation. Share prices have recovered from the March lows, Wall Street continues to expect above-average earnings growth, and a handful of companies still carry a significant portion of the market. However, the once unquestioned belief in technology and AI stocks has clearly faded. Polish investors, in particular, appear more cautious and increasingly selective—especially as the geopolitical environment remains far from stable.
Disclaimer:
This material is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. The views expressed are general in nature and do not take into account the individual objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Before making any investment decision, you should seek independent professional advice and conduct your own analysis.
