In the second quarter of this year, contract sales reported by residential developers listed on the main market and Catalyst bond market of the Warsaw Stock Exchange showed a clear acceleration, both year on year and quarter on quarter. The figures for the first half of the year present a similar picture, suggesting that sales conditions on Poland’s primary residential market, as measured by the performance of its largest listed developers, are following a distinctly upward trend.
| Company | Q2 2026 | Q2 2025 | YoY change | H1 2026 | H1 2025 | YoY change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atal | 908 | 383 | 137% | 1,547 | 726 | 113% |
| Budlex* | 87 | 57 | 53% | 178 | 101 | 76% |
| Dekpol* | 146 | 181 | -19% | 262 | 354 | -26% |
| Develia | 892 | 748 | 19% | 1,752 | 1,699 | 3% |
| Dom Development* | 1,221 | 1,000 | 22% | 2,382 | 2,033 | 17% |
| Archicom Group | 719 | 632 | 14% | 1,321 | 1,162 | 14% |
| Inpro* | 158 | 128 | 23% | 329 | 272 | 21% |
| JHM Development | 140 | 96 | 46% | 304 | 180 | 69% |
| Lokum Deweloper | 50 | 34 | 47% | 101 | 65 | 55% |
| Matexi Polska | 103 | 99 | 4% | 195 | 170 | 15% |
| Marvipol Development* | 123 | 81 | 52% | 273 | 168 | 63% |
| Murapol | 615 | 708 | -13% | 1,330 | 1,403 | -5% |
| Robyg | 660 | 570 | 16% | 1,280 | 960 | 33% |
| Ronson Development | 150 | 87 | 72% | 272 | 183 | 49% |
| Unidevelopment | 93 | 60 | 55% | 164 | 110 | 49% |
| Victoria Dom* | 379 | 328 | 16% | 803 | 603 | 33% |
| Wikana | 53 | 68 | -22% | 108 | 125 | -14% |
| Total | 6,497 | 5,260 | 24% | 12,601 | 10,314 | 22% |
Sales reported by residential developers listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange’s main market and Catalyst in Q2 and H1 2026 compared with the corresponding periods of 2025
* Including paid reservation agreements
Compiled by: RynekPierwotny.pl, based on company reports
The group of 17 residential developers listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange found buyers for nearly 6,500 homes between April and June this year, representing year-on-year growth of approximately 24%. Compared with the first quarter of 2026, when the analysed companies contracted the sale of 6,104 homes, the increase exceeded 6%.
“Results for the first half of the year are similarly encouraging. Sales reached 12,600 units, representing year-on-year growth of 22%. These figures suggest that Poland’s primary residential market is accelerating quite visibly despite the continuing geopolitical uncertainty. The question remains, however, whether this marks the beginning of a lasting, at least medium-term upward trend,” says Jarosław Jędrzyński, an expert at RynekPierwotny.pl.
Broad-Based but Uneven Acceleration
Importantly, the improvement was not limited to just a handful of companies. Fourteen of the 17 developers analysed recorded year-on-year sales growth in the second quarter. Only Dekpol, Murapol and Wikana reported declines. This means that the acceleration was relatively broad-based, although its scale varied considerably from one company to another.
Atal made the largest contribution to the increase in the aggregate result, selling 525 more homes than in the corresponding period of the previous year. This single company accounted for more than 42% of the total sales increase recorded by the analysed group. Together with Dom Development and Develia, the three companies were responsible for nearly 72% of the annual increase in contracted sales.
This does not mean, however, that the overall improvement resulted solely from the exceptionally strong performance of the market leaders. Excluding Atal, the remaining companies recorded year-on-year growth of approximately 15%. After excluding Atal, Dom Development and Develia, sales by the remaining 14 developers were still more than 11% higher than a year earlier.
The situation is somewhat less clear when compared with the first quarter of this year. The aggregate increase of 6.4% was achieved with sales improving at nine companies and declining at eight.
Atal once again played a major role in this result, increasing its contracted sales from 639 to 908 units, or by 42%. Excluding Atal, the group’s quarter-on-quarter sales growth would have amounted to just over 2%. This would still represent an improvement, but a considerably more moderate one.
The Largest Developers Are Capitalising on Their Economies of Scale
The strong results reported by listed companies do not necessarily provide an exact reflection of the situation faced by every business operating on the primary residential market.
The largest developers have extensive portfolios across several metropolitan areas, larger marketing budgets and greater flexibility in adjusting sales schedules, promotional campaigns and payment terms. At a time of high supply and increasingly selective buyers, this advantage of scale may be particularly important.
Many companies currently have a substantial number of completed homes or units at an advanced stage of construction in their portfolios. For buyers, this means the possibility of taking possession relatively quickly, reducing investment risk and often gaining greater scope for price negotiations.
The largest market participants are better positioned to take advantage of these factors, capturing part of the demand that might otherwise have gone to smaller and less well-funded competitors.
For this reason, the sales growth recorded by the 17 analysed companies should not automatically be equated with an identical improvement in market conditions across the entire primary market. However, the listed developers’ results clearly show that the claim of a sharp collapse in demand during the second quarter is not supported by the reports of Poland’s largest residential developers.
Market Statistics Present Different Pictures
The very substantial discrepancy between the available statistics for the overall market is also worth noting.
According to Otodom data, sales of developer-built homes increased by several per cent in the second quarter compared with the first quarter. By contrast, Big Data statistics from RynekPierwotny.pl indicate a decline of as much as 20%. Meanwhile, reports published by the analysed listed companies show an increase of more than 6%.
These differences may result from the varying scope of the markets and businesses covered, different methods of allocating sales to individual months and the fact that some developers include paid reservation agreements in their reported results.
The datasets are therefore not fully comparable. However, the scale of the divergence is sufficiently large to require considerable caution when drawing definitive conclusions about current market conditions.
The most credible conclusion appears to be that the improvement in sales is particularly visible among large developers operating in major urban markets, while the situation of smaller companies and individual local markets may be considerably more varied.
A Recovery, but Not Yet a Boom
The strong annual growth rates should also be treated with some caution because of the relatively low comparison base.
In the second quarter of last year, the process of reducing interest rates was only just beginning, while access to mortgage financing was considerably more difficult than it is today. Since then, households’ borrowing capacity has improved due to lower interest rates, rising wages and slowing inflation.
This does not, however, mean that the housing market is returning to boom conditions. Buyers continue to compare prices, locations and development standards very carefully, while the record-wide availability of homes is forcing developers to offer promotions and adopt more flexible sales policies.
Rising contracted sales therefore do not necessarily have to translate automatically into an equally rapid increase in housing prices.
The results for the first half of the year primarily indicate a gradual recovery in demand and an improvement in the sales performance of the largest developers.
Should the coming months bring a further decline in borrowing costs and continued real wage growth, the second half of the year may confirm this trend. However, any renewed increase in inflationary pressure or geopolitical uncertainty remains a factor that could limit the pace of the continuing recovery.
Author: Jarosław Jędrzyński
