The most recent information published by Poland’s Central Statistical Office (GUS), presenting preliminary data on residential construction in April and the first four months of this year, confirms a weakening condition of the investment segment of the primary housing market since the beginning of the year. According to experts from the portal RynekPierwotny.pl, this is the result of a noticeably growing investment caution among developers and a complicated geopolitical situation.
The decline in GUS housing construction statistics, already visible since last autumn—especially in data on housing starts and new permits—was confirmed in the April release. Moreover, this situation primarily stems from a slowdown in developers’ investment activity. This may raise concerns about the sales market outlook for new apartments in the coming months.
According to experts at RynekPierwotny.pl, investors started construction of over 20,000 apartments last month, which is 5.5% lower than in April last year and 8% down compared to March. Developers themselves recorded a relatively weak result of just under 12,000 housing starts—one of their weakest figures since mid-2023.
Meanwhile, in the first four months of this year, nearly 76,000 apartments and houses were started in Poland, representing a 7% decline compared to the same period last year. Developers accounted for 48,000 units, which is an 11% year-on-year decrease. These results signal a rather worrying slowdown in the investment momentum of the primary housing market.
Even weaker are the GUS data concerning new building permits or submissions with building projects. In total, about 19,000 administrative decisions were issued in April across all forms of construction, and nearly 81,000 since the beginning of the year, both representing year-on-year decreases of approximately 24% and 15%, respectively.
Developers’ permits, numbering just under 11,000 in April and 51,000 since the start of the year, indicate a clear year-on-year regression of 37% and 25%, respectively. Even month-to-month, a decline of around 23% was recorded. Such statistics rank among the historically weakest results for developers acquiring these administrative decisions.
Meanwhile, data on housing completions remain only a background indicator within GUS’s residential construction statistics. In April, just over 16,000 apartments were completed—roughly unchanged both year-on-year and month-to-month. Since the start of the year, about 62,000 units have been completed, only 3% fewer than in the comparable period last year.
The latest GUS report on Poland’s residential construction situation thus carries a rather pessimistic tone. Experts from RynekPierwotny.pl point out that the statistics on developers’ new building permits are particularly concerning, as these are considered reliable indicators of builders’ investment optimism regarding housing for sale or rent. Although the significance of the current declines is somewhat mitigated by the large volume of such administrative decisions accumulated last year, the April monthly figure of just over 10,000 units still seems discouraging.
Overall, there is a clear trend of growing investment caution among developers, most likely caused by uncertainty about the economic outlook in Poland amid a range of threats driven by an increasingly complicated geopolitical situation. However, at this point, it still appears too early to completely rule out the possibility of a more sustained revival in the domestic housing market before the end of this year.
Author: Jarosław Jędrzyński, expert at RynekPierwotny.pl
