Data from Otodom for the past two years show that the supply of land is not increasing, which is why plots with a fully regulated legal status are now the most sought after. Why is land becoming more expensive even as home sales weaken—and how will the new general plans reshape the market in 2026?
Investors are increasingly concerned about the consequences of the new regulations. Why? The planning reform is dismantling a system that has been in place for nearly two decades. From now on, the general plan prepared by local governments will determine which plots retain development rights—and thus investment attractiveness—and which will lose value significantly.
“New general plans may mean the loss of development status for thousands of plots across Poland. That’s why the most expensive parcels are those with a regulated legal status, which in practice means they can be developed with either multi-family or single-family housing. The land market has always been highly regionally diversified in terms of price, but Warsaw and Kraków defy any comparison with the rest of the country. High land costs in these two agglomerations push up apartment prices, which is why the market continues to expand into the suburbs—where both developers and individual investors are actively looking,” explains Katarzyna Kuniewicz, Director of Real Estate Market Research at Otodom.
The Paradox of Resilience: Winter Won’t Freeze Prices
Land prices have been rising steadily for two years despite a decline in the number of listings. Paradoxically, land continues to appreciate even when apartment sales temporarily weaken and investor sentiment reflects heightened economic uncertainty. As experts point out, land cannot be “overproduced,” and the number of plots formally prepared for development is shrinking. This shortage—combined with the prospect of general plans coming into force in July 2026—means that the smallest plots located within major cities command the highest prices per square meter.
Warsaw, with asking prices approaching PLN 900 per square meter, and Kraków at around PLN 600 per square meter, have become premium land markets. Close behind is the Tricity, represented by Gdańsk (PLN 484 per square meter), which recorded the strongest year-on-year growth at +24%. Kraków followed with +20% y/y. Eastern Poland is also gaining prominence: Białystok posted a 35% increase over the past two years, while Kielce rose by 34%. Markets with lower entry barriers are therefore growing faster. The most affordable region is Opole Province (PLN 184 per square meter), while prices in Lublin, Warsaw, and Katowice have remained relatively stable.
“The current winter period is only an apparent stabilization. The smallest parcels with the highest price per square meter define today’s premium land segment. However, plots ranging from 3,000 to 5,000 square meters—the mid-range—are becoming the target of strategic acquisitions by developers, as they combine investment potential with a reasonable unit price,” the Otodom expert comments. This is all the more true as locations within a 15–20 minute commute to the city have the potential to become fully integrated parts of large urban agglomerations in the future.
Land Costs Set the Floor for Home Prices
“Let’s remember that the price of an apartment or a house starts with the availability and cost of the land it stands on. Warsaw is by far the most expensive, and if land acquisition accounts for as much as 50% of total development costs, then new homes in the capital are simply very expensive. By comparison, in Kraków—the second-largest city by population and housing supply—asking prices for plots are around 30% lower than in Warsaw. In the next five markets, the gap versus the capital widens further, reaching as much as 50%. In practice, the purchase price of land largely determines the value of apartments and houses—and today’s investment ‘diamonds’ are plots with secured development rights,” concludes Katarzyna Kuniewicz.
What Will Spring 2026 Bring?
All signs point to a spring of intense mobilization. Suburban expansion will accelerate, often offering buyers a house for the price of an apartment. For owners of plots with unclear legal status, however, this will be the last call to submit applications to the emerging general plans. We are entering a phase in which information about a plot’s legal status becomes the single most important determinant of its value. The difference between agricultural and building land is no longer just a margin—it reflects the real value of the right to develop.
Developers are racing against time, while individual investors must do their homework and verify a plot’s legal status well in advance if it is to become the site of their dream home. Landowners, meanwhile, should be aware that once the general plan is adopted, changing a plot’s status will become far more difficult and costly.
Source: CEO.com.pl
