Housing prices are higher than ever. However, buyers can expect discounts and rebates, as indicated by significantly lower transaction prices than the asking price of the apartments sold. Interestingly, this is more evident in the prices of second-hand premises than in developer ones. These differences are well illustrated by data from Krakow and Warsaw, the two largest housing markets in Poland. There, the affordability of apartments simply declines. The situation in both cities is commented on by Katarzyna Kuniewicz, the head of research at Otodom.
There are more apartments, but they are getting smaller
The offer of developer apartments in both cities has significantly increased over the last year. Currently, there are 14,000 flats for sale in Warsaw (plus 1,500 reserved), which means an increase in offers by 57% year on year. In Krakow, the supply jump is even more spectacular – from 4.3 thousand to 9.2 thousand apartments (plus 900 flats reserved), a growth of up to 115%. So are developers building too much? Not necessarily.
“In Warsaw, an offer of 15,000 flats is close to the market norm from 2024, and in Krakow 9,000 flats is a standard supply level, but from a few years ago. The spike in the number of available offers is rather due to the execution in 2024 of previously obtained building permits, which resulted in a large number of flats introduced for sale. However, what should be noted is the shrinking size of new flats. In Warsaw, the average size of a flat offered by developers has dropped over 12 months from 59 m² to 56 m², and in Krakow from 59 m² to 55 m². As a result, if the buyer has the same amount of money as a year ago, they can afford a smaller flat. So they can still meet their housing needs, but at a realistically lower level” – comments Katarzyna Kuniewicz, head of research at Otodom.
There is stability, but at what price?
The average listing price of a new apartment in Warsaw is currently 960,000 PLN, and in Krakow 900,000 PLN. Although the total price has stopped rising, it is still extremely high, as it is close to a million PLN in the capital. What’s more, taking into account that the average size of the apartments offered is getting smaller, it is not surprising that the average prices of apartments expressed in PLN per square meter are still rising – in January this year in Warsaw by 5% year on year, and in Krakow by almost 10%. The rises are lower than in 2023, but now buyers pay the same for smaller flats.
Second-hand does not mean cheaper
“It turns out that the secondary market will not always be an option for those who think that flats from developers are always more expensive. In Warsaw, the average price per square meter on the second-hand market is 18,500 PLN, and in Krakow 16,400 PLN, i.e. – more than on the primary market. One of the interesting, though natural, phenomena is the change concerning the age structure of the flats offered on the secondary market. About 20% of the flats available for sale are buildings from 1945-1990, but more and more announcements are flats built in the last three-to-five years. We are witnessing a rejuvenation of the offer on the secondary market, as flats purchased several years ago from developer companies have an increasingly larger share in the market. Given that flat prices have risen dynamically during this period, the owners can justifiably hope that they will sell them at a high profit” – adds Katarzyna Kuniewicz.
Rent or not to rent…
For many people, purchasing their own flat becomes less and less accessible, so they direct their searches to the rental market. According to Otodom data, at the end of January 2025, there were 6.7 thousand flats for rent in Warsaw. However, it should be noted that only in the first month of this year did 4.5 thousand new offers of this type appear on the OLX and Otodom services. In Krakow, this pool was 2.5 thousand flats. There is, in what to choose, but the problem is high rents.
In Warsaw, the average monthly rent is 5,000 PLN, which is a considerable burden for many households. In Krakow, it is slightly better – the average rent is 3.2 thousand PLN. Interestingly, the situation in the Krakow market is more advantageous than in Warsaw, not only because of the lower rents. In recent months, average salaries in the capital of Malopolska exceed those in Warsaw, which, combined with lower flat prices and cheaper rent, gives the inhabitants of Krakow relatively better conditions to meet their housing needs.
Source: https://managerplus.pl/czy-rynek-wtorny-to-nadal-tansza-alternatywa-w-warszawie-i-krakowie-niekoniecznie-24286
