Paradoxically, the war in Ukraine has enabled Europe to offload outdated military equipment from its warehouses. With those now-empty storage facilities, the continent has the opportunity to refill them with modern weaponry, which also aligns with efforts to reduce dependency on external suppliers. The European Commission has expressed a positive stance toward keeping the arms industry within European control, a move widely seen as strategically sound.
Poland’s defense industry holds considerable potential—despite being largely state-owned. While arms production may be profitable in the short term due to the current geopolitical climate, the industry will eventually need to adapt to peacetime demand. Without ongoing military needs, defense firms lacking sufficient orders could become reliant on state subsidies. Transitioning part of the weapons manufacturing sector to private ownership could help ease the burden on public finances, reducing the long-term cost to taxpayers.
“To be fair, there is some logic in Donald Trump’s approach—especially in how he communicates with voters and the world,” said Mariusz Zielonka, Chief Economist at the Lewiatan Confederation, in an interview with eNewsroom.pl. “Europe became overly reliant on U.S. support, which has created significant dependency. The continent has now received a cold wake-up call—and that has finally spurred action.”
Fortunately, Europe is at a point where it can militarily and financially prepare for the potential withdrawal of U.S. troops or a shift in NATO support. While drastic changes in transatlantic relations are not expected in the immediate future, decision-makers should be planning for various scenarios.
“Support for Ukraine remains essential to our security and European stability. The conflict is a major factor shaping Europe’s defense cohesion and geopolitical posture,” Zielonka continued. “In light of evolving threats, it’s crucial to strengthen Europe’s defense industry and labor markets—not just to enhance security, but also to ensure strategic independence.”
Source: ManagerPlus – Is Europe Ready for the U.S. to Step Back as Security Guarantor?
