Iran increased its oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz before the United States’ announced tightening of restrictions on Iranian ports. Over the course of one week, six US-sanctioned supertankers entered the Gulf of Oman with their automatic identification systems switched off. Together, the vessels are capable of carrying approximately 12 million barrels of oil.
Since 7 July, numerous other Iran-linked vessels have also left the strait, including oil tankers, liquefied petroleum gas carriers and container ships.
Iran is estimated to have exported approximately 57 million barrels of oil during the interval between the two stages of the US blockade. Washington had previously withdrawn Tehran’s temporary permission to sell crude and announced that the restrictions would be reinstated at 10 p.m. CEST on Tuesday, 14 July.
Although vessel traffic visible through maritime monitoring systems almost came to a halt, the actual number of ships passing through the strait may have been significantly higher. Some vessels were operating with their tracking transmitters deliberately switched off.
Strait of Hormuz remains crucial to global energy supplies
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important transport routes for oil and gas produced in the Persian Gulf region.
Restrictions on shipping or attacks against vessels could reduce the amount of crude reaching the global market, increase transport and insurance costs, and ultimately lead to another rise in oil and fuel prices. Growing tensions in the region are also increasing uncertainty across financial markets.
However, the available data does not make it possible to determine precisely how many vessels passed through the strait or which of them were carrying Iranian oil.
Maritime tracking systems provide only a partial picture because many vessels deliberately disable their automatic identification systems.
Donald Trump’s announcement that the United States would demand a 20% share from cargoes transported through the strait with US support also remains unclear. No details have been provided explaining how such a mechanism would operate.
Iran moved substantial volumes before restrictions returned
Iran therefore managed to export a significant volume of oil before US restrictions were tightened again. Future shipments may, however, be limited by the growing military risk in and around the Strait of Hormuz.
The greatest threat to the global energy market is not only the blockade of Iranian ports, but also the possibility of a prolonged disruption to shipping through one of the world’s most important oil supply routes.
Following the US announcement concerning the blockade of Iranian ports, Brent crude futures ended the previous session 9.59% higher, closing above $83 per barrel for the first time in a month.
The price continued to rise on Tuesday, gaining another 2.38% on ICE Futures Europe and moving above $85 per barrel.
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