The Polish economy remains on a path of stable growth, although the environment in which companies operate is still marked by elevated uncertainty. According to forecasts by the BNP Paribas Brokerage Office, Poland’s GDP is expected to grow by 3.5% in 2026, which would represent only a slight slowdown compared with the previous year. At the same time, inflation is projected to decline to an average of 3.2%, remaining closer to the National Bank of Poland’s target than in recent years.
For businesses, this means that operating conditions should remain relatively favourable, although without a full return to the predictability that for many years formed the basis of business planning. Much will depend on the geopolitical situation, particularly developments in the Middle East. The baseline scenario assumes a gradual normalisation of the situation and a decline in energy commodity prices. However, a possible escalation of the conflict could once again increase inflationary pressure, affecting both companies’ operating costs and consumers’ willingness to spend.
Investment impulse
One of the most important factors supporting the economy remains investment. The year 2026 could bring a record inflow of European funds. If the funds available under the National Recovery Plan are fully used, around PLN 210 billion could flow into the Polish economy. Such a strong investment impulse would be felt not only in the public sector, but also across many industries cooperating with public administration, local governments and large entities carrying out infrastructure projects.
For companies, this creates an opportunity to scale up their operations, but also requires proper organisational and financial preparation. During periods of accelerated investment activity, issues related to liquidity, timely contract financing and the ability to handle a growing number of orders become particularly important. In practice, efficient working capital management often determines which companies are able to make effective use of emerging market opportunities.
Consumer condition remains solid
The continuing good condition of consumers is also a positive signal for business. Although wage growth is expected to be slower than in previous years, household consumption is still forecast to increase by around 3.5%. This means that relatively solid domestic demand should be maintained, remaining one of the main drivers of Poland’s economic growth.
The situation on the financial market is also worth noting. Forecasts indicate that NBP interest rates should remain stable until the end of the year, while the exchange rate of the zloty against the euro is expected to stay close to current levels. Such a scenario supports investment planning and reduces risks related to financing costs and exchange-rate fluctuations. At the same time, businesses cannot completely rule out an alternative scenario in which persistent geopolitical tensions force a more restrictive monetary policy.
Moderately optimistic outlook
The outlook for the Polish economy remains moderately optimistic. Companies are operating in an environment full of challenges, but they also have access to strong growth impulses in the form of EU co-financed investment, a stable labour market and sustained domestic demand.
Under these conditions, competitive advantage is determined not only by the quality of products and services offered, but also by the ability to respond quickly to changing economic conditions and to manage corporate finances effectively.
Source: CEO.com.pl
