The latest decision of the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) to cut interest rates is being welcomed as good news for the economy.
“This decision is encouraging. We’ve been waiting for a change that allows businesses to once again take bolder investment steps — to give them wind in their sails, space, and resources so they can act with more confidence. I see positive signals, though the rate cut itself is not a game changer. We still need a more comprehensive economic plan. Nevertheless, the RPP’s decision is something to be pleased about,” said Hanna Mojsiuk, President of the Northern Chamber of Commerce in Szczecin.
A Boost for the Economy — but Inflation Likely to Stabilize
According to Mojsiuk, the decision to lower interest rates is both appropriate and necessary under current conditions.
“Inflation is declining, economic anxiety has eased slightly, and it’s time to stimulate entrepreneurs to invest. EU Recovery Fund (KPO) money is reaching the market, new projects are being launched, and we can see positive changes,” she added.
Experts from the Chamber stress that the move was not a surprise. With inflation falling, a rate cut was not only expected but also broadly desired.
Today, the main interest rate stands at 4.75% — the lowest in over three years — but it remains relatively high, almost two percentage points above the inflation rate.
“This means Poland is pursuing a policy of an excessively positive real interest rate — the gap between the nominal rate and inflation. Such a stance could soon weigh on economic activity. For now, the economy is doing better than expected, but investment growth is still awaited, held back by the high cost of credit. Personally, I expect at least one more 25-basis-point cut from the NBP this year — maybe in November, or perhaps as a Christmas gift,” commented Professor Aneta Zelek of the West Pomeranian Business School.
However, she is less optimistic about further inflation declines.
“Currently inflation still exceeds the NBP’s 2.5% target, despite highly favorable price conditions in fuels, gas, and heating. It will be difficult to maintain this effect, so price pressures may return in the coming quarters — though not as strongly as in the past three years. I estimate inflation will hover around 3% in the near future. If this scenario materializes, we’ll have to wait longer for more radical rate cuts,” Zelek explained.
Housing Loans More Accessible, but Buyers Still Waiting for Price Drops
The sectors most sensitive to interest rate changes are those dependent on bank financing — including real estate. Lower rates and broader access to mortgage loans could trigger a market revival.
“When the RPP lowered rates for the first time after many months of stagnation, phones at real estate agencies and developers’ offices immediately began ringing. Clients expected a sharp market shift, falling prices, and a dramatic increase in mortgage availability. But that didn’t happen, as banks had already been adjusting their offers in anticipation of the cut. The same is true now. Mortgages are easier to obtain, but it’s a soft transition, not a sharp turn. For some clients, this may feel disappointing,” said real estate expert Mirosław Król.
The same trend applies to housing prices.
“On the secondary market, corrections are visible in almost every Polish city, but sales are picking up slowly — even as mortgage access improves,” Król noted.
According to market forecasts, apartment sales are expected to grow in the autumn.
Source: ManagerPlus.pl
