In the second quarter of 2025, Poland’s Monetary Policy Council (RPP) cut the reference interest rate for the first time in seven months. However, this move has not sparked a surge in housing market activity. While mortgage lending is gradually rising, many prospective buyers are still waiting for a better time to enter the market.
Although lower interest rates have created a more favorable environment for mortgage financing, buyers are not rushing to snap up properties. According to the Demand Index featured in the Metrohouse & Credipass Barometer report, prepared in cooperation with RynekPierwotny.pl, Q1 2025 actually saw more buyer activity in terms of property viewings than Q2.
“It’s possible that many buyers are holding out for further rate cuts, hoping to increase their credit capacity and afford properties better suited to their household needs,” explains Marcin Jańczuk, Metrohouse expert and co-author of the report.
Secondary Market: Stable Prices, Cautious Buyers
What’s keeping buyers on the sidelines? One key factor is the expectation of price drops. But when current prices are compared to those from a year ago, there is no significant decrease in most cities.
Meanwhile, property supply remains high, resulting in longer search periods for buyers. The abundance of listings—both on the secondary market and from developers—ironically slows down purchase decisions.
Investor interest also remains subdued. According to Jańczuk, only one in five properties is currently being bought for investment rather than for owner-occupancy. The increasing saturation of the rental market poses a challenge for investors, who must now carefully evaluate local market dynamics to maintain profitability compared to capital market alternatives.
Still, real estate is widely viewed as a safe haven for preserving value over time.
Primary Market: Gdańsk Outpaces Kraków
Data from BIG DATA RynekPierwotny.pl x FLTR shows a new record in Warsaw, where average offer prices have surpassed 18,000 PLN/m². However, the more striking development is the price surge in Gdańsk, which now outpaces Kraków in terms of new housing costs and is closing in on Warsaw.
“Gdańsk once again saw the fastest growth in new home prices, with quarterly price increases accelerating from 3.1% to 3.7%,” says Andrzej Prajsnar, expert at RynekPierwotny.pl.
This growth was driven by an increase in the share of luxury units priced above 20,000 PLN/m², which now make up 31% of Gdańsk’s developer offerings. For comparison:
- Warsaw: 24% of listings over 20,000 PLN/m²
- Kraków: only 13%
Between April and June 2025, Gdańsk saw a notable expansion in the premium segment of its new housing market.
“In Q2 2025, Gdańsk overtook Warsaw in the share of sales for units priced above 25,000 PLN/m²—7% vs. 5%,” adds Prajsnar.
Mortgage Market Recovery, but Buyers Face a New Dilemma
There are clear signs of renewed interest in mortgage financing, with an increase in both loan applications and average loan size. This reflects greater confidence and access to financing following rate cuts.
“Lower interest rates have not only made mortgages cheaper, but have also improved creditworthiness, bringing back many buyers who had previously postponed their plans,” says Andrzej Łukaszewski, co-author of the Metrohouse & Credipass Barometer.
However, as the market shifts away from government-subsidized mortgage programs, and with speculation of further rate cuts, borrowers are facing a new dilemma.
At the beginning of 2025, fixed-rate mortgages were the clear preference, offering stability and predictability. Now, with floating rates expected to drop further, variable-rate mortgages are gaining appeal.
“The key question now is: how will the cost structure of both fixed and variable-rate mortgages evolve?” notes Łukaszewski from Credipass.
“While the difference in nominal rates between the two options is narrowing, fixed-rate loans still offer lower costs, though variable rates are becoming a real alternative.”
Conclusion: Market Conditions Are Better – But Buyers Are Still Cautious
Despite lower interest rates, the housing market has not yet entered a boom phase. Prices are holding steady, and many buyers are still waiting—either for better affordability or greater clarity on the future of interest rates.
At the same time, Gdańsk has become Poland’s new price leader in the primary market, driven by a sharp rise in luxury listings. Meanwhile, the mortgage market is gaining momentum, but changing expectations around interest rates are creating new decision-making challenges for potential borrowers.
Source: ceo.com.pl – Despite Lower Rates, the Housing Boom Hasn’t Arrived
