The spring interest rate cut by Poland’s central bank has become a reality. This decision could accelerate an important trend already visible in the mortgage market: the growing popularity of housing loans with variable interest rates.
Despite heightened geopolitical risk, the Monetary Policy Council of the National Bank of Poland decided to implement its first interest rate cut of the year, lowering rates by 0.25 percentage points—slightly less than some market participants had expected. This move may reinforce a key trend in the credit market, namely the increasing share of newly issued mortgages with variable interest rates.
Data from the latest report by AMRON-SARFiN confirm this development. According to the report, the share of variable-rate housing loans rose from 24.3% to 35.2% of the number of newly signed mortgage agreements in the fourth quarter of 2025. However, the increase in the share of variable-rate mortgages in the total value of new contracts was significantly smaller. Analysts from RynekPierwotny.pl have been examining this phenomenon based on interesting data from February.
Banks increasingly attract customers with variable-rate offers
A chart prepared in cooperation with RM Kredyty Hipoteczne and BIG DATA RynekPierwotny.pl shows how interest rates on new housing loans have evolved. The data refer to the median mortgage interest rate offered by nine leading banks in Poland.
In February 2026, the median interest rate for mortgages with variable rates stood at 5.79%, while fixed-rate offers had a median of 5.75%. This meant that the difference between the two types of loans remained minimal, essentially repeating the situation observed in January.
However, analysts from RynekPierwotny.pl previously pointed out that if one considers the most competitive offers rather than the average bank offer, variable rates were already more attractive in January—5.62% compared with 5.73% for fixed-rate loans. February further widened this gap, with the most competitive variable rate falling to 5.40%, while the best fixed-rate offer stood at 5.64%. Signals from the market therefore suggest that variable-rate mortgages are becoming increasingly attractive to consumers.
A paradox: fixed rates may encourage variable borrowing
The AMRON-SARFiN data indicate that, for now, variable-rate mortgages are more commonly chosen when borrowers take out smaller housing loans. Borrowers may assume that with lower levels of debt, potential increases in monthly installments would be less burdensome for their household budgets.
Variable interest rates may also appeal to individuals with a large down payment or those whose income is high relative to the amount borrowed and who expect further interest rate cuts in the future.
Some borrowers may also assume that if there is a risk of a significant increase in interest rates by the National Bank of Poland, they can simply switch their mortgage to a temporarily fixed-rate structure. This creates a somewhat paradoxical situation. The presence of fixed-rate mortgage products on the market—required by Poland’s financial regulator—may actually encourage some borrowers to initially choose variable-rate loans. The key question, however, is whether expectations of further interest rate cuts and lower variable mortgage rates are justified in the current geopolitical environment.
Economist commentary on the March rate cut
“The Council’s decision to reduce rates by another 25 basis points had been expected since December, although markets had even considered the possibility of a 50-basis-point cut,” explains Jan Dziekoński.
“However, following the surge in energy commodity prices—particularly crude oil, petroleum products, and natural gas—after the outbreak of conflict in the Persian Gulf, the entire interest rate yield curve shifted upward. Bond yields increased and expectations of rapid and significant rate cuts declined. This means that the prospect of further improvements in mortgage conditions may be pushed further into the future, especially if the conflict intensifies and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues,” he adds.
