Between January and September 2025, a staggering 5,215 Polish companies declared insolvency — a 17% increase compared to the same period in 2024, and a 39% jump from the first half of 2025. According to experts at Coface, the credit risk management firm that publishes quarterly data on insolvencies, the surge reflects increasing business challenges and greater awareness among Polish entrepreneurs — with 94% opting for restructuring procedures rather than liquidation in Q3.
Despite favorable macroeconomic conditions and growth forecasts, external uncertainties — especially geopolitical tensions and the weak state of Germany’s economy, Poland’s biggest trade partner — continue to weigh heavily on Polish businesses.
Strong GDP Growth, But Firms Still Struggling
The first quarter of 2025 brought relatively supportive economic conditions. In Q2, Poland’s GDP grew by 3.4% year-on-year — the highest rate in the European Union. Industrial production rose by 7.4% YoY. However, despite these positive macroeconomic indicators, many sectors still face challenges, including high interest rates and international market pressures.
So why are insolvencies rising, and which sectors are most affected?
Restructuring Replaces Bankruptcy
Coface data show a growing willingness among firms to choose restructuring to avoid outright bankruptcy. In the first three quarters of 2025, 94% of insolvent firms opted for restructuring proceedings — allowing them to negotiate with creditors, maintain control over operations, and attempt to continue business. Only 6% chose liquidation.
Services, Trade, and Construction Face the Most Insolvencies
The service sector accounted for 28% of insolvencies (1,469 cases), trade for 20% (1,039 cases), and construction for 17% (903 cases).
The service sector saw a 16% rise in insolvencies year-over-year, driven largely by IT and communications firms (+37%). Despite the rapid expansion of service production, rising costs and liquidity challenges are taking their toll — even on growth segments.
The retail trade segment remains relatively stable, likely due to market consolidation and the expansion of large retail chains. Wholesale trade, however, saw a 16% increase in insolvencies compared to Q3 2024.
“Construction remains a sector under severe pressure, with 903 insolvency cases so far — that’s one-sixth of all filings and a 27.5% increase compared to Q3 2024,” says Paweł Tobis, COO and Head of Risk Management at Coface Poland. “In fact, the number of cases recorded in 2025 has already exceeded the full-year total from 2024.”
Even with falling building material costs and rising mortgage interest — which could stimulate housing demand — Tobis believes the sector’s recovery will require major public investments, particularly in road and rail infrastructure, energy, and defense projects.
Outlook: Mixed Signals Ahead
Despite a strong economic performance, the external environment remains uncertain. Rising trade tensions and historically high tariffs present challenges, while German economic weakness poses risks for Polish exporters.
“Coface forecasts GDP growth to accelerate to 3.4% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026,” says Dr. Mateusz Dadej, Chief Economist at Coface in Poland and the CEE region. “While more households are inclined to save — dampening private consumption — growing investment could take over as the primary driver of GDP. The key uncertainty for the coming quarters will be Poland’s fiscal consolidation strategy, including how the government plans to raise new revenue streams.”
Economists predict that even as the macroeconomic environment gradually improves, insolvency numbers will continue to rise — due mainly to the growing popularity of restructuring procedures as a way for companies to avoid liquidation. Over time, the rate of insolvency growth is expected to slow.
Source: ManagerPlus.pl – “Record Insolvency Levels and Rising Awareness Among Polish Companies: Q3 2025 Report”
