According to the latest Allianz Trade report, the number of corporate insolvencies in Poland is expected to increase by 14% in 2025 and a further 5% in 2026. What’s more — Poland is already off the charts in most European comparisons, having recorded a 427% surge in insolvencies between 2019 and 2024, one of the highest growth rates on the continent.
Allianz Trade emphasizes that this is not the result of tariffs or global trade tensions, but rather a consequence of internal structural problems in the Polish economy — especially within the micro and small business (SME) segment.
SMEs Overloaded with Costs — Poland Is Structurally Losing Competitiveness
Polish SMEs are currently under pressure from some of the highest cost levels in Europe:
- Energy — among the most expensive in the EU
- Wages — rising sharply since 2022
- Cost of money — still high interest rates on loans and leasing
- Tax policy risk — possible changes to the health contribution could further increase burdens
But the most alarming trend is the explosion of simplified restructuring procedures. Originally intended as a “second chance” mechanism, they are now being massively misused.
Over 90% of Polish insolvencies now take the form of restructuring — which in practice means halting payments to creditors, shifting the burden onto suppliers, often other SMEs.
Meanwhile:
- Only 1 in 3 restructurings even reaches the arrangement stage
- Only a fraction results in a truly rescued business
This creates a snowball effect — SMEs are unintentionally financing the survival of their insolvent business partners, often within local supply chains.
Hardest-Hit Sectors (data after Q3 2025)
| Sector | Situation |
|---|---|
| Construction | +30% more insolvencies year-on-year — high exposure to energy, labor and financing costs |
| Services | 36% of all insolvencies — especially B2B, transport, local gastronomy and micro-services |
| Wholesale trade | Rising domino effect from restructurings and payment blockages (zatory płatnicze) |
What Lies Ahead?
Allianz Trade forecasts that 2025 and 2026 will remain difficult, with a potential slowdown only in 2027 — provided that:
- energy prices are stabilized
- no new tax or social contribution increases are introduced
- restructuring abuse is reined in through legislation
- EU Recovery Fund (KPO) money effectively reaches the private sector
Conclusion
Poland is not currently facing an external economic shock — but rather a deep, long-term deterioration in SME resilience, caused by a persistent mismatch between business costs and real market margins.
It is internal structural imbalances, not global disruptions, that will determine the scale of insolvencies in Poland over the next several quarters.
