The construction of the Central Communication Port (CPK) and high-speed rail, along with a wave of other road and rail projects, is raising questions about the availability of aggregates. Logistics of their supply may also prove problematic. Public investments account for around 65% of aggregate demand, and in the coming years, Poland will face an investment boom.
“Aggregates are a fundamental building material. Without them, no project could be carried out. This market is strongly tied to the scale, type, and pace of investments, particularly in construction,” said Dr. Eng. Łukasz Machniak, Director of the Management Office at the Polish Association of Aggregate Producers (PZPK) and Assistant Professor at the Faculty of Civil Engineering and Resource Management at AGH University of Science and Technology, in an interview with Newseria.
A key indicator of the relationship between the aggregate market and construction is GDP. When GDP growth remains at around 2.2% annually, the market stays stable. Faster economic growth drives higher demand for aggregates, while slower growth reduces it.
“In recent years, demand has been stable at around 230 million tons per year, with roughly 80 million tons being crushed aggregates from solid rocks, and 150 million tons being sand and gravel,” said Dr. Machniak. “Crushed aggregates are produced in about 240 locations, mostly in the Lower Silesia and Świętokrzyskie regions, while sand and gravel are produced in approximately 2,500 sites across the country.”
According to his 2023 presentation “The Role and Importance of Aggregates in the National Economy”, the industry’s net revenue in Poland amounted to between 7 and 9 billion PLN.
“Public investments account for around 65% of total aggregate demand, with the private sector responsible for the remaining 35%,” Machniak explained. “Looking ahead, there are many major projects: the Central Communication Port, high-speed rail, intensified work by PKP Polskie Linie Kolejowe, and the continued expansion of the expressway network by the General Directorate for National Roads and Motorways. On top of that, local governments and private companies are pursuing their own projects.”
According to the expert, investment’s share in GDP will be higher than in previous years, which may accelerate demand for aggregates.
“My research suggests that compared to 2023, there is about 20% potential to increase the extraction of raw materials for aggregate production in existing mining facilities. But note: this concerns extraction, not actual aggregate production,” he emphasized. “Take CPK as an example: estimates suggest the project will require around 6 million tons of igneous and metamorphic aggregates, mainly sourced from Lower Silesia. But since these specific fractions make up no more than 20–25% of total output, meeting this demand would require extracting 25 million tons of rock.”
PZPK members warn that overlapping projects may result in shortages of certain aggregates, particularly crushed stone and railway ballast, as well as logistics bottlenecks.
“There are also medium- to long-term issues. Within the next 15 years, reserves in 55 deposits used for crushed aggregates will be depleted. If we fail to extend their lifespan or open new sites, and existing mines cannot compensate for the lost volumes, supply could fall sharply—from the current 80 million tons to below 50 million tons,” Machniak said.
He estimates that lost capacity could be restored by about 60%, to around 65 million tons, but even that poses risks.
“Some argue that recycled aggregates could close the gap. They are already on the market, but I see many irregularities. As long as legislation treats them solely as waste—subject to lengthy administrative procedures—I don’t expect much progress,” he stressed. “We should aim to recover more demolition and reused materials and direct them toward more ambitious applications as substitutes for natural aggregates.”
Despite the clear link between aggregate availability and economic growth, the issue has failed to gain attention from policymakers, regardless of political affiliation.
“I think the topic is politically sensitive, as it touches on spatial planning, private property, farmland and forest use, social acceptance, and environmental issues,” Machniak concluded. “If Poland aspires to sustain at least 2.2% GDP growth, we must start seeing mineral resources as strategic assets requiring real protection.”
