In the first half of 2025, the Polish housing market was characterized by growing sales of mortgage loans, gradual interest rate cuts, and important decisions regarding government housing programs. The number of new loans granted increased from 15–16 thousand per month at the beginning of the year to 18–19 thousand in spring, with nearly 37.5 thousand applications in June alone. The data for this period indicate dynamic changes that will impact the market situation in the coming months.
According to the Credit Information Bureau (BIK), in May 2025 banks issued 23.7% more housing loans compared to May 2024 and 1.3% more than in April 2025. In terms of value, the increase amounted to 31.2% year on year and 1.7% month on month. Demand for housing loans remained high at the end of the first half of the year. In June 2025, a total of 37,470 people applied for housing loans, compared to 27,440 a year earlier (a 36.6% increase year on year). Compared to May 2025, the number of applicants fell by 3%.
In the first half of 2025, the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) made two interest rate cuts. In May, rates were reduced by 0.5 percentage points, including the reference rate to 5.25%. In July, rates were lowered again by 0.25 percentage points, bringing the reference rate to 5%.
“The July interest rate cut was not widely expected. The assumption was rather to maintain the earlier hawkish approach of the Council. Rate cuts may translate into lower mortgage installments based on variable interest rates and increase credit availability for some borrowers,” explains Anton Bubiel, real estate market expert at SonarHome.
Subsidy Programs or Social Housing?
At the end of the first half of the year, doubts about the new housing program “First Keys,” specifically regarding loan subsidies, were dispelled. Government coalition representatives responsible for housing policy announced the withdrawal from subsidies, redirecting funds instead toward social housing implemented by local government units.
“Social expectations regarding subsidies were limited—unlike the ‘Safe Loan 2%’ program. The period of uncertainty about possible subsidies has ended. The ‘Housing Without Own Contribution’ program run by the National Development Bank (BGK) is still active. The Family Housing Loan remains available at banks cooperating with BGK and is aimed at creditworthy individuals lacking their own contribution,” notes the SonarHome expert.
Market Outlook for the Second Half of 2025
The SonarHome expert expects the trend visible in transaction price changes to persist at least until autumn, with minor local corrections possible.
“If demand rises in response to recent interest rate cuts, moderate price increases may occur later this year, although accompanied by a gradual decline in supply,” warns Anton Bubiel.
Forecasts for loans remain optimistic. Despite high interest rates, lending activity has increased naturally.
Another interest rate adjustment is possible as early as September. According to Ludwik Kotecki, a member of the RPP, July’s cut may be the start of a cycle. Two further cuts of 25 basis points each are possible by year-end if macroeconomic indicators permit. The National Bank of Poland (NBP) projects that CPI inflation will fall to the target level (2.5% ± 1 percentage point) in Q3 2025, averaging 2.9%. Banks including Pekao, ING BSK, Millennium, and Goldman Sachs forecast the reference rate could reach 4.75% by year-end—a total reduction of 1 percentage point compared to early 2025.
The first half of 2025 in Poland’s housing market saw increases in mortgage lending, a moderate decline in supply, and key decisions impacting housing support programs. Interest rate cuts and stabilizing inflation create conditions for further changes, with future developments dependent on economic indicators and RPP decisions in the coming months.
