Inflation in Poland accelerated to 3.0% year on year in July 2026, interrupting the downward trend recorded in the previous months. The increase was driven primarily by transport fuels, whose prices rose by 13.9% compared with June, while food prices declined.
Macroeconomic Data · Statistics Poland · July 2026
Consumer prices rose by 3.0% year on year in July 2026, according to a preliminary flash estimate from Statistics Poland. This marks a clear rebound after inflation slowed to 2.5% in June, with the increase driven primarily by fuels for private transport, which became nearly 14% more expensive in a single month.
Inflation in Poland Since January 2025
Year-on-year price change in percent. The dashed line shows the National Bank of Poland’s 2.5% inflation target, together with the permitted tolerance band of ±1 percentage point. The July 2026 figure is a flash estimate. Source: Statistics Poland. Own analysis based on Statistics Poland data.
Fuel Prices Drive the Acceleration
The nearly 14% month-on-month surge in fuel prices was the strongest single inflationary impulse visible in the July data. It had clear regulatory and geopolitical causes. At the end of June, the government’s “Lower Fuel Prices” programme expired. Since March, it had included a reduced 8% VAT rate on petrol, diesel and biocomponents, lower excise duty and administratively imposed maximum prices at filling stations. On 1 July, the standard 23% VAT rate and full excise duty were restored, while price caps ceased to apply, resulting in abrupt increases at the pump.
Developments in commodity markets added further pressure. An escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude oil quotations and wholesale fuel prices in Europe to levels not seen for several years, accelerating price increases at Polish filling stations in the second half of July.
Food Prices Fall While Energy Remains Stable
Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices moved in the opposite direction to fuel prices, falling by 0.4% year on year and by 0.8% compared with June. This was the only one of the four highlighted categories in which Statistics Poland recorded an outright price decline, partly cushioning the increase in the overall index.
Prices of household energy carriers — electricity, gas and other fuels — increased much more moderately than transport fuels, rising by 4.0% year on year and by just 0.1% month on month. The category remains relatively stable and is not currently generating an additional price shock.
Inflation Moves Back Into the Upper Half of the NBP Target Band
At 3.0%, inflation is now in the upper half of the National Bank of Poland’s permitted deviation band around its 2.5% target, which allows for a fluctuation of ±1 percentage point. The June reading of 2.5% had been the closest to the target itself since the beginning of 2025. The July acceleration therefore interrupts the convergence trend seen since March and, given its regulatory origins, may complicate policymakers’ interpretation of the inflation path in the coming months.
Starting with data for 2026, Statistics Poland calculates the consumer price index in line with the international COICOP 2018 classification, which replaced the previously used system. Direct comparisons of basket structures and subcategories with data from before 2026 should therefore be approached with caution.
The published indicator is a flash estimate and may be revised in the next full release from Statistics Poland.
Data source: Statistics Poland, “Flash Estimate of the Consumer Price Index in July 2026”, published on 31 July 2026. Own analysis based on Statistics Poland data.
