An analysis of nearly 100,000 retail prices shows that the pace of price increases in Polish stores has slowed for another consecutive month. In June 2026, the cost of everyday purchases rose by an average of 2.7% year on year, compared with 3.4% in May and 3.7% in April.
The trend was even more pronounced in food prices, which increased by 1.9% year on year in June. The corresponding rise was 2.4% in May and 3.3% in April. This means that price growth in the food category remained below the average recorded across all the market segments included in the analysis.
The authors of the report also note that the latest data suggest geopolitical tensions have had a much weaker impact on prices than expected. They caution, however, that the full effects may emerge with a delay, as higher costs are typically passed on to retail prices gradually.
According to the latest edition of the Retail Store Price Index, prepared by UCE RESEARCH and WSB Merito University, the everyday purchases made by Polish consumers were, on average, 2.7% more expensive in June than a year earlier.
The study covered 17 of the most frequently purchased product categories, including food, beverages, household chemicals and personal care products. Both regular and promotional prices were analysed.
Year-on-year price increases had been higher in previous months, reaching 3.4% in May and 3.7% in April.
“The pace of price growth in stores has been slowing for another consecutive month. Apart from a minor exception, this trend has continued for around a year and broadly corresponds with changes in the general inflation rate,” said Dr Marek Szymański of WSB Merito University.
“It is worth noting the difference between the two indicators. In June 2026, the retail store price index was 0.2 percentage points higher than Statistics Poland’s flash inflation estimate. Even this gap, however, is narrowing. A few months ago, it exceeded one percentage point.”
Dr Agnieszka Łopatka of WSB Merito University explained that the difference between retail price growth and consumer price inflation results from the different composition of the two indicators.
The retail price report covers 17 categories of fast-moving consumer goods, while the Consumer Price Index measures prices across the entire consumer basket, including fuel, energy, clothing, transport and services.
In June, it was categories outside retail store shelves that reduced the overall CPI inflation rate. A particularly important factor was the 7.4% month-on-month fall in fuel prices. A reduced VAT rate also helped limit transport and logistics costs.
“Strong disinflationary factors were at work in the food segment, including double-digit declines in agricultural purchase prices. Food is no longer the main source of price growth,” Łopatka said.
“Categories whose prices depend on labour costs, regulation, taxation and service costs have become more significant. It can therefore be said that inflationary pressure has changed in nature, shifting from primarily food-related inflation to pressure driven by costs, regulation and services.”
Food price growth slows to 1.9%
According to the report, food alone was 1.9% more expensive in June than a year earlier. The previous annual increases were 2.4% and 3.3%.
Łopatka said lower raw material prices were gradually reducing food production costs and slowing the pace of retail price increases.
June is also the period when domestically grown fruit and vegetables from the new season begin to enter the market. This increases supply and naturally limits upward price pressure across many food categories.
“Another important factor is the very strong competition between retail chains. An open price war between discount stores is still under way, and basic food products such as flour, rapeseed oil, butter, milk and meat are being used in the battle to attract customers and strengthen retailers’ market image,” she said.
“The growing number of promotions is reducing the average prices paid by consumers. At the same time, representatives of the food-processing industry point out that some promotional prices do not reflect the actual costs of raw materials, production, logistics and energy.
“This demonstrates the current intensity of competitive pressure in the retail market. Seasonality is also an important factor.”
Food inflation remains below the overall retail average
The report shows that the rate of food price growth in June was once again significantly lower than the increase recorded across all the categories included in the study.
“This may appear encouraging, because food prices have indeed been rising much more slowly than overall retail prices for many months,” Szymański said.
“I suspect, however, that retailers’ margins on food increased during the same period. According to Statistics Poland, producer prices in the food industry have been falling since October 2025. In May, they declined by 4% year on year, while prices on store shelves still recorded a small increase.
“Of course, we should not forget imported food products, which are not reflected in Statistics Poland’s industrial producer price data.”
Geopolitical tensions have had a weaker impact than expected
UCE RESEARCH analysts noted that several factors could have contributed to higher retail prices in recent months, including geopolitical tensions and changes in commodity markets.
Their effect on consumer prices, however, proved substantially weaker than the market had feared.
“The strong Polish zloty provided support by reducing the cost of importing energy commodities, food and packaging,” Łopatka said.
“When analysing these figures, however, it should be remembered that retail prices usually react with a delay of several months. The June reading therefore primarily reflects the favourable cost conditions seen in the spring, rather than the period of the most intense geopolitical tensions.”
Research methodology
The data come from the recurring Retail Store Price Index, which has been published monthly for more than nine years by UCE RESEARCH and WSB Merito University, formerly known as the WSB Universities.
The analysis measures average prices, including both regular and promotional offers, and compares them on both a month-on-month and year-on-year basis.
The latest edition compared data from June 2026 with the corresponding period of 2025. It covered 17 categories and more than 100 everyday products most frequently selected by consumers.
In total, nearly 100,000 retail prices were compared across more than 45,500 stores operated by 64 retail chains.
The study included all discount stores, hypermarkets, supermarkets, convenience chains and cash-and-carry operators whose offers reach the majority of consumers in Poland.
