Inflation in October was recorded at 2.80%, below the market expectation of 3.00%. This is a strong surprise and marks the lowest reading since July 2024. Food prices decreased, while fuel prices increased.
It now appears that the likelihood of an interest rate cut in November has significantly increased. In fact, the door to such a move has not just been cracked open—it has been flung wide.
Table 1. Flash Estimate of the Consumer Price Index for October 2025
| CATEGORY | 10 2025 (10 2024=100) | 09 2025=100 |
|---|---|---|
| TOTAL | 102.8 | 100.1 |
| Food and non-alcoholic beverages | 103.4 | 100.0 |
| Energy carriers | 102.6 | 100.6 |
| Fuel for private means of transportation | 98.2 | 101.0 |
Source: Statistics Poland (GUS)
Source: https://ceo.com.pl/inflacja-w-polsce-zaskoczyla-i-otworzyla-drzwi-do-listopadowej-obnizki-83740
