According to preliminary estimates, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation for January 2025 was 5.3% year-on-year. This marks an increase from the previous month, where the index reached 4.7% year-on-year. Forecasts suggested that inflation would accelerate to 5%. On a monthly basis, prices increased by 1%, also surpassing forecasts (0.7%).
However, forecasting the January figures always carries a greater degree of uncertainty, mainly due to the scale of the New Year price updates. Additionally, the preliminary index is calculated based on last year’s weights, so the final data for this month may still be significantly revised after recalculation.
In my opinion, the preliminary higher reading does not significantly change the market environment. It was widely expected that the CPI index would rise in the first quarter, peaking around 5.5%. In the coming months, we expect a gradual decrease in the rate of the index towards the upper limit of the inflation target (3.5%), which will occur at the earliest by the end of the year.
Bartosz Wałecki, Analyst, Trader at Michael / Ström Brokerage House
Source: https://managerplus.pl/inflacja-w-polsce-wyzsza-od-prognoz-wzrost-z-47-do-53-r-r-w-styczniu-23398
