The preliminary estimate of consumer inflation in Poland for April 2025 came in at 4.2% year-over-year, slightly below the market consensus of 4.3%. On a monthly basis, inflation reached 0.4%, exceeding the expected 0.3%.
The data confirms that the peak of inflation in 2025 occurred in the first quarter, with year-over-year inflation running at 4.9% in both February and March.
These latest inflation figures, along with recent macroeconomic indicators, strengthen the case for the dovish faction of Poland’s Monetary Policy Council (RPP). Market expectations for the RPP’s May meeting are increasingly focused on the magnitude of the upcoming rate cut, with a return to monetary easing appearing all but certain.
“The current inflation reading, along with previous macro data, gives further support to the dovish camp within the RPP,” said Jan Karczewski, Director of Strategic Clients at Michael / Ström Brokerage House.
