Inflation in Poland has fallen again. According to a flash estimate by Statistics Poland (GUS), inflation in October stood at 2.8% year-on-year, down slightly from 2.9% in both August and September. This means it remains in the upper range of the National Bank of Poland’s (NBP) inflation target, but contrary to earlier forecasts by the central bank, it is not rising—on the contrary, it is edging down. This can be attributed to the energy price freeze legislation as well as external factors such as stable oil and natural gas prices. In this scenario, it is increasingly likely that the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) will cut interest rates again in November, potentially lowering the reference rate to 4.25%.
The October CPI result is lower than economists’ expectations, who had predicted that inflation would remain unchanged. On a monthly basis, prices rose by just 0.1%, clearly indicating that price pressures have eased in the short term. Just a few months ago, the NBP assumed that inflation could again exceed 3% in the second half of the year, mainly due to higher energy and service costs, as well as a possible rebound in food prices. So far, this scenario has not materialized, leaving room for further rate cuts.
In October, food prices were unchanged compared to September. Year-on-year, food and non-alcoholic beverages were 3.4% more expensive—higher than the overall inflation rate, but lower than the 4.2% annual increase recorded a month earlier. Energy carrier prices rose by 2.6% year-on-year, compared to 2.4% in September. Meanwhile, fuel prices increased by 1% in October. Despite some uptick in energy commodities, their impact on inflation remains moderate, and overall inflation continues to decline.
Data for September show that sugar prices dropped the most year-on-year—by as much as 23%. This is the result of a sharp decline in global sugar prices, which fell by 34% over the past year, reaching their lowest level in four years. A key factor is record production in Brazil, now accounting for a quarter of global supply. Brazilian sugar mills are increasingly turning sugarcane toward sugar production, as corn-based biofuel has become cheaper than sugarcane-based ethanol. As a result, the global sugar market has shifted from deficit to surplus, and in the 2025–2026 season, production is expected to exceed consumption by nearly 2.8 million tons. In Poland, a kilogram of sugar now costs under 3 PLN, compared to around 4.5 PLN a year ago.
On the other hand, prices for animal-based foods and stimulants are rising the fastest. Beef and egg prices are up 18% year-on-year, mainly due to higher feed costs and reduced meat supply in Europe. Tobacco products rose by 17.7% due to higher excise taxes, while coffee and cocoa prices climbed by over 15%, reflecting record global agricultural commodity prices. It is clear that Polish inflation is shaped by both domestic factors, such as demand and production costs, and global commodity price trends.
In the current context, the GUS data clearly support the scenario of monetary policy easing. A 25 basis point rate cut at the November MPC meeting is highly likely. In recent months, the Council seems to have aligned its decisions with market sentiment, which has shifted as inflation risks have visibly diminished. The latest eToro Individual Investor Pulse survey shows that inflation, after months of topping the list, fell to second place in the third quarter among investors’ biggest concerns. The top concern now is the risk of international conflict, cited by 25% of respondents. Inflation worries 22%, while recession in Poland and abroad worries 12%, respectively.
