The Polish economy in 2024 is developing surprisingly well. A potential danger could be inflation, which is currently increasing at a rate of 0.1% per month. When comparing this indicator to wages – thus analysing how much money Polish people are actually left with – one could conclude that inflation will have a rather neutral impact on citizens’ sentiments. Especially, given that inflation expectations are low, and forecasts suggest that by 2025, inflation will not exceed an average of 5% annually. So, it can be expected that inflation will be lower than the forecasts issued by the Ministry of Finance in the draft budget law.
“We recently received revised data for 2023, where we almost hit stagnation. At the moment, everything indicates that mainly industrial diversification is driving Poland’s economy,” Mariusz Zielonka, Chief Economist of the Lewiatan Confederation, told eNewsroom.pl during EFNI 2024. “This is surprising because our industry relies heavily on what is happening in the West, particularly in the German economy. Initially, the automotive sector was strong – now the wood industry is taking the lead. Unfortunately, there are concerns about the Monetary Policy Council – it is unclear which direction their interest rate policy will go. It seems that we should expect cuts, as the economy will be recovering. We’re also witnessing a significant influx of KPO funds, and new investments are beginning. Very good data is coming from the job market, which is resisting all turmoils, when it comes to economic slowdowns or weaker moments for the economy. The unemployment rate – regardless of how it is calculated – is at the lowest level since the beginning of tracking this indicator in Poland’s history. What will be keeping Polish people awake at night is inflation. Although, even that no longer impacts citizens as much as it did in 2022 or 2023,” analyses Mariusz Zielonka.
Source: https://managerplus.pl/dywersyfikacja-przemyslu-napedza-polska-gospodarke-ale-inflacja-i-polityka-stop-procentowych-wciaz-budza-obawy-69255
