Poland must prepare to function with a shrinking and ageing population. Immigration may ease this process, but it will not reverse it.
Just a decade ago, packed buses heading to London and Dublin symbolised Polish emigration. Today, Poland itself has become a country attracting foreign workers. However, the rapid increase in the number of migrants will not protect the Polish economy from the consequences of negative demographic change.
The year 2014 was the last in Poland’s recent history in which the country recorded a negative net international migration balance, amounting to 15,750 people. Between 2014 and 2016, however, the trend reversed. From that point onwards, more people began arriving in Poland than leaving it.
A quiet revolution took place, transforming Poland from a country of emigration into a country of immigration. In 2025, for example, the number of people arriving in Poland exceeded the number leaving by 10,906.
The scale of Poland’s transformation into an immigration country is illustrated even more clearly by the rapid increase in the number of foreign workers.
The exact number of foreigners working in Poland is not known. However, data from the Social Insurance Institution, or ZUS, show their growing presence in the labour market.
Between 2016 and 2025, the number of foreign nationals registered for pension and disability insurance in connection with employment increased more than fourfold, from 293,000 in 2016 to 1.288 million in 2025.
Over the course of a decade, the number of foreign workers insured through ZUS therefore increased by nearly one million. They now account for 8.5% of all people in employment.
Without foreign workers, the Polish economy would have developed much more slowly.
According to the report “Migration in Poland”, prepared by the Institute of Public Affairs, Ipsos and Deloitte, Poland’s GDP in 2025 could have been as much as PLN 416 billion lower without the contribution of foreign workers.
Simulations also indicate that, thanks to their work, Poland’s GDP could be between 5.1% and 10.7% higher over the long term.
The increase in the number of foreigners in Poland’s labour market coincided not only with rapid economic growth, but also with a decline in labour supply and the ageing of the population.
Between 2016 and 2025, the working-age population — defined as women aged 18 to 59 and men aged 18 to 64 — decreased by more than two million people. At the same time, the number of people of retirement age increased by 1.2 million.
The resulting labour-market gap was filled to a large extent by more than one million foreign workers.
This might suggest that the problem caused by population decline has been solved. However, that is an illusion.
Demographic forecasts are unforgiving.
According to projections by the Polish Economic Institute, the number of workers could decline by as much as 2.1 million by 2035.
Forecasts also point to the continued ageing of the population.
According to ZUS projections, the demographic dependency ratio — the number of people of retirement age per 100 people of working age — is expected to increase from 41.5% in 2025 to 47% in 2035.
In other words, an increasingly small number of workers will have to support a growing number of pensioners.
With demographic changes occurring on such a scale, even immigration will not be able to prevent their negative consequences.
ZUS analyses show that the demographic dependency ratio in 2035 would remain at its 2025 level only if the number of working-age foreigners increased by an average of approximately 300,000 every year.
This would be roughly three times higher than the average annual inflow of foreign nationals over the past decade.
The number of foreign nationals insured through ZUS would also have to increase to 2.8 million by 2035. This would represent 13.5% of Poland’s working-age population.
Such a scenario appears unlikely.
Maintaining immigration at such a high level for many years would be difficult because the whole of ageing Europe will be competing for workers.
In addition, the migration potential of Ukraine — currently the main source of foreign workers arriving in Poland — is gradually being exhausted.
A rapid increase in the number of foreigners would also require sustained public acceptance and effective integration of new residents.
This would depend not only on the economic situation, but also on political decisions and the quality of migration policy.
Even though immigration helps to mitigate the negative effects of demographic change, Poland must prepare to operate with a shrinking and ageing population.
Immigration may ease this process, but it will not reverse it.
Author: Paweł Janukowicz — PhD in social sciences in the field of economics and finance and a member of the Polish Economic Society.
Sources
Deloitte, Institute of Public Affairs, Ipsos (2026), Migration in Poland: Facts, Impact and Directions for Action
Polish Economic Institute (2024), The Consequences of Demographic Change for Labour Supply in Poland
Social Insurance Institution (2026), Foreign Nationals in the Polish Social Insurance System 2025
Source: ManagerPlus.pl
