Hungary is heading into what may be Europe’s most important election of 2026. On April 12, Hungarians will go to the polls to decide whether Fidesz will remain in power after 16 years of rule. The outcome could alter the course set by Viktor Orbán and potentially reset the country’s relationship with the European Union.
Looking at independent polling data, as well as betting markets, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that an opposition victory is no longer a wishful scenario, but the base case. In just over a week, the government could be replaced by a party that did not exist in the political mainstream two years ago — much like its leader, Péter Magyar.
Péter Magyar: from Fidesz member to the face of Tisza
The story of the 45-year-old is particularly striking because he was connected to Fidesz for half of his life. He was active in local party structures already during his student years, when Fidesz was still in opposition to the Hungarian Socialist Party. In 2010, when Fidesz returned to power, he began working at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Later, he became part of Hungary’s Permanent Representation to the EU, the Prime Minister’s Office, and legal departments of major state-owned companies.
He never built the kind of career within party structures that his former wife, Judit Varga, did. In 2019, she became Minister of Justice. Senior party politicians did not view Magyar — who had repeatedly criticized government actions during internal disputes — as a “team player,” and the breakdown of his relationship with Varga only pushed him further away from Fidesz’s inner circle.
The turning point came with the scandal surrounding the presidential pardon of Endre Kónya, who had been convicted of covering up child sexual abuse crimes. Media revelations about the case in February 2024 triggered one of the deepest crises Fidesz has faced in years, leading to the resignation of President Katalin Novák and Justice Minister Judit Varga.
Magyar saw in that moment the opportunity of a lifetime. Shortly afterward, he released an audio recording of Varga related to the most high-profile corruption case of recent years, the Schadl–Völner affair. He also gave an interview to the opposition-linked YouTube channel Partizán, which was viewed more than one million times within just a few days.
Momentum around Magyar grew at a startling pace, allowing Tisza — which he had joined only shortly before — to win close to 30% of the vote in the European Parliament election. Since then, the party’s ratings have risen almost continuously, making it the unexpected favorite in the parliamentary election scheduled for April 12.
Major programmatic differences despite shared traits
Despite appearances, the two parties have quite a lot in common. Magyar consistently describes himself as a “conservative liberal.” Like Viktor Orbán, he is competing for right-wing voters, invoking national values, patriotism, and the country’s Christian roots in his rhetoric.
Migration policy: Tisza has declared that it will preserve the border fence built by Orbán along Hungary’s border with Serbia and supports a hardline anti-immigration policy. In many European Parliament votes on this issue, it has maintained a common front with Fidesz.
Family policy: Magyar emphasizes that this was one of the “few good things” Fidesz did and that it only needs improvement. His party’s election platform includes, among other things:
- doubling family benefits, which have not been indexed for years,
- introducing a one-off childbirth benefit,
- maintaining tax breaks for families with children,
- preserving preferential treatment in housing loans,
- tax exemptions for mothers in large families.
Christian values: the opposition leader stresses his attachment to Catholic values, and Tisza’s program mentions the protection of “Christian culture.”
Elements of state interventionism: despite being more liberal than Fidesz in some respects, Tisza is not a free-market party per se. Particularly notable are its intentions to:
- support sectors and companies considered strategic from the state’s point of view,
- intervene in the housing construction sector,
- maintain energy price controls for households,
- make substantial public investments, using EU funds where possible.
A strong leader and a confrontational campaign style: it is no coincidence that the name “Magyar” is used almost synonymously with “Tisza” in this analysis. His rhetoric and campaign style can be compared to Fidesz’s methods from the 2000s — simple, emotionally charged language, an intensive ground campaign, extensive use of national symbols, and a “us versus them” narrative. In Fidesz’s case, however, “them” most often refers to the EU.
Still, the differences are too important to ignore, especially if Tisza is to be seen as a reformist and anti-establishment force. These differences concern both social issues and — most importantly from a market perspective — foreign policy.
Pro-European stance: Tisza favors a rapid reset of relations with the EU, an end to veto politics, constructive cooperation with Brussels, and preparations for the possible adoption of the euro. Magyar promises the swift unfreezing of EU funds. While some resources have already been lost for good, large sums remain frozen, and restoring access to them is central to his economic and political message.
Attitude toward Russia and the war in Ukraine: unlike Fidesz, Tisza supports maintaining sanctions against Russia and providing humanitarian aid to Ukraine. Magyar has said in public speeches that Hungary should gradually reduce its energy dependence on Russia. He does not rule out Ukraine’s accession to the EU in the long term, although not through an accelerated process.
Rule of law and the fight against corruption: the opposition leader promises to dismantle the National System of Cooperation, join the European Public Prosecutor’s Office, and ensure full transparency in the spending of public funds.
Values: although also conservative, Tisza is seen as significantly more centrist and liberal than Fidesz. Magyar is much more cautious on issues related to LGBT rights, uses a more inclusive definition of patriotism, and treats Christianity in a less instrumental way.
Model of democracy and approach to state media: restoring pluralism — for example by limiting the prime minister to eight years in office and allowing citizens to elect the president directly — is among Tisza’s priorities. Considerable attention is also being paid to the depoliticization of public media.
Impact on markets
We see four scenarios for the election. For each of them, we outline our expectations regarding the key economic effects and the likely reaction of the forint.
Scenario 1: Tisza wins a constitutional supermajority (more than two-thirds of seats)
Probability: about 10%
Forint: significant appreciation (+4% to +6%)
Winning at least 133 out of 200 seats would give Tisza the power to:
- amend the constitution without opposition consent,
- pass and revise so-called cardinal laws, including rules governing the electoral system, public media, court competences, and some tax and budget matters,
- appoint key judicial and institutional figures.
Such a strong mandate would enable Tisza to launch sweeping reforms and quickly dismantle the existing political system built over the past 16 years. Expectations of deep reforms and improved relations with Brussels should trigger an immediate improvement in market sentiment.
The prospect of unlocking frozen EU funds could provide a meaningful growth impulse for the Hungarian economy. A stronger-than-expected Tisza result should lead to a substantial appreciation of the forint, strong gains on the Hungarian stock market, and lower yields on government bonds.
Scenario 2: Tisza forms a government without a constitutional supermajority
Probability: about 65%
Forint: appreciation (+2% to +4%)
In this case, the party would not be able to unilaterally reform key institutional laws. The release of EU funds could therefore take somewhat longer, but relations with Brussels would almost certainly improve significantly.
Greater policy predictability, gradual reforms, and lower investment risk should materially improve investor sentiment. While a Tisza victory is already partially priced in, the currency should still strengthen. Similar trends would likely be seen in equities and bond markets, though on a smaller scale.
Scenario 3: Fidesz forms a government on its own
Probability: about 15%
Forint: marked depreciation (-3% to -6%)
This outcome would mean the continuation of the current model, with power remaining concentrated in Fidesz’s hands. Political and institutional risks would stay elevated, and EU funds could remain frozen for years. Relations with Brussels would remain tense.
Such a result would likely lead to a reversal of part of the forint’s previous gains, declines in the stock market, and rising bond yields.
Scenario 4: Fidesz forms a coalition government with Mi Hazánk
Probability: about 10%
Forint: significant depreciation (-4% to -7%)
Mi Hazánk is a far-right party. Its participation in government would likely push Hungary toward a more radical political path, intensify anti-EU rhetoric, and increase geopolitical tensions.
Further isolation on the European stage would be viewed negatively by markets. The forint would likely weaken significantly, accompanied by declines in equities and bonds.
