An analysis conducted by the Economic Analysis Team at EY Poland indicates that over the next decade, approximately 2.6% of tasks performed in the country may be automated using artificial intelligence-based tools. This is lower than in Western Europe or the U.S. (around 5%) but higher than the average in Central and Eastern Europe (2.2%). The implementation of AI technology will drive productivity growth but will also require significant financial investments. As a result, over the next decade, investments in information and communication technologies in Poland are expected to nearly double, increasing by 0.4% to 0.9% of GDP. EY experts also estimate the potential for additional GDP growth of 0.7% to 2.1%. However, the introduction of AI solutions is not expected to be neutral for inflation (a possible increase of 0.3 percentage points) and interest rates (an increase of 0.2 to 0.9 percentage points).
Poland’s Automation Potential in Comparison
EY Poland experts estimate that approximately 2.6% of tasks in Poland could be automated using AI tools over the next decade. This figure is lower than in Western Europe and the U.S., where EY’s Economic Analysis Team estimates the level at about 5%. In Central and Eastern Europe, this rate is around 2.2%, which is 0.4 percentage points lower than in Poland.
“Effectively utilizing AI tools will be a turning point not only in business. Emerging models and data analysis methods will provide a significant competitive advantage. We are only at the beginning of this journey, but it is already clear that this is not a passing trend but a lasting change with no way back. It concerns not just individual enterprises but entire economies. This is a crucial moment for action, including in Poland. Implementing AI is a marathon, not a sprint. However, even in long-distance races, those who fall behind early have significantly lower chances of crossing the finish line first,” says Jacek Kędzior, Managing Partner at EY Poland.
Factors Limiting AI Adoption in Poland
The lower potential in Poland and other countries in the region is due to lower wages compared to Western Europe. As a result, the economic benefits of potentially replacing human labor with AI are more limited. Data from the International Labour Organization shows that even when considering purchasing power, wages in Poland are about 60% of those in the U.S. and Western Europe. In Central and Eastern Europe, this figure drops to 40%.
Using AI for task automation and assistance in other activities will reduce production costs, leading to increased productivity in the economy. To estimate the scale of this growth, it is essential to consider the share of labor costs in total production expenses. Poland has a lower labor cost share in production than the Central and Eastern European average. Therefore, despite a slightly higher automation potential, EY experts expect a similar productivity growth rate. In Poland, productivity is expected to rise by 0.3% to 0.9%, while in the region it will be 0.3% to 0.8%, and in Western Europe, it will range from 0.9% to 1.8%.
“There is no doubt that artificial intelligence will have an increasing impact on the labor market over time. Therefore, companies should already maximize their efforts in employee education where possible. Having a workforce equipped with AI skills will provide a competitive advantage. Automation does not mean replacing workers but rather making their work easier, for example, in data analysis or content creation. AI will help reduce costs and, consequently, increase productivity in the economy,” adds Jacek Kędzior.
AI Adoption in Companies and Related Investments
The potential for task automation will also impact the scale of AI adoption in businesses and related investments. EY Poland’s analysis suggests that over the next ten years, the proportion of companies using AI technologies will increase significantly. By 2033, between 19% and 41% of Polish companies with ten or more employees will be using AI-based technologies. This is higher than in Central and Eastern Europe (16%-35%) but lower than in Western Europe (37%-77%). These differences largely result from varying automation potential over the coming years. The percentage of companies using AI tools in different countries may also vary depending on government support. In Poland, this could be influenced by the Digitalization Strategy 2035, which aims for a 50% AI adoption rate among companies (the EY analysis was conducted before the document was presented by the Ministry of Digital Affairs).
The growing use of AI among Polish businesses will require significant investments in both computer hardware and software. EY experts estimate that over the next decade, investments in information and communication technologies in Poland should nearly double—rising by 0.4% to 0.9% of GDP—to enable effective AI implementation. For Central and Eastern Europe, a similar increase is projected, ranging from 0.3% to 0.8% of GDP.
AI Will Boost GDP but Also Inflation and Interest Rates
Investment estimates necessary for AI implementation and resulting productivity increases help outline the scale of AI’s impact on GDP over the next decade. For Central and Eastern Europe, EY’s Economic Analysis Team forecasts an additional GDP growth potential of 1% to 2.3%. In Poland, this potential is slightly lower, ranging from 0.7% to 2.1%. This is due to Poland’s economy being less open than the regional average, making it less susceptible to demand stimulation resulting from AI adoption in Western Europe, where GDP growth is expected to range from 1.8% to 3.7%.
“AI will affect both the demand side of the economy, primarily through increased investment, and the supply side, by enhancing production potential. We predict that, although the proportions will shift over time, the demand effect will be slightly stronger than the supply effect over the next decade. As a result, price pressures will increase, prompting central banks to maintain slightly higher interest rates. Entrepreneurs should incorporate AI’s impact on monetary policy and capital costs into their strategies,” says Marek Rozkrut, Partner, Head of Economic Analysis at EY, and Chief Economist for Europe and Central Asia.
Over the next decade, AI implementation will contribute to moderate inflation growth—ranging from 0.1 to 0.25 percentage points. However, in Central and Eastern Europe, the imbalance between demand and supply will be more significant, leading to a stronger inflationary impulse of up to 0.8 percentage points. Poland, due to a lower imbalance between demand and supply, stands out positively within the region, with projected inflation growth not exceeding 0.3 percentage points.
Interest rates are expected to rise more than inflation. These increases will be driven by cyclical factors such as heightened demand and inflation, as well as structural factors related to increased investment needs and projected productivity growth. Central and Eastern Europe will experience the largest adjustments in central bank policies. Interest rate hikes in this region will primarily be driven by cyclical factors and could reach 0.5-1.1 percentage points. In Poland, due to a lower demand-supply imbalance, the expected range is slightly lower, between 0.2-0.9 percentage points.
“Poland has slightly more potential to increase investments and productivity through AI than the Central and Eastern European average. However, the projected impact on GDP, inflation, and interest rates is somewhat weaker than the regional average. This is because Poland’s economy is slightly less open than other countries in the region. Consequently, demand growth in Western Europe due to AI implementation will have a smaller impact on Poland than on the region as a whole. The good news is that this means less demand-supply imbalance, resulting in lower inflation and interest rate increases than the Central and Eastern European average,” concludes Marek Rozkrut.
