Although wages continue to rise, housing affordability is not improving everywhere. The latest data from Statistics Poland and BIG DATA RynekPierwotny.pl show a clear divide between metropolitan areas where the relationship between prices and incomes is improving and those where average buyers, despite more favourable macroeconomic conditions, are losing ground.
In Gdańsk, the annual affordability indicator for new apartments fell from around 0.72 sqm in 2022 to approximately 0.61 sqm in 2025 and at the beginning of 2026. The situation is even more pronounced in Warsaw, which has remained the least affordable housing market in the country for several years. In the first quarter of 2026, the average salary there was enough to buy only around 0.59 sqm of a new apartment.
Not long ago, the public debate was full of warnings about a price bubble in the housing market. Concerns about a sharp correction appeared regularly, fuelled by record price increases and limited access to mortgages. Recently, however, the topic has almost disappeared from the front pages. And not without reason. In 2024 and 2025, housing price growth was generally no longer completely detached from incomes, while the market entered a phase of greater balance.
“The problem is that the disappearance of the term ‘bubble’ from public debate does not mean that housing affordability has improved,” notes Marek Wielgo, an expert at RynekPierwotny.pl. “Annual data show that in many metropolitan areas, despite relatively stable price-to-income ratios, the average purchasing power of city residents is systematically declining.”
What the affordability indicator really shows
Marek Wielgo emphasises that the affordability indicator is not a literal measure of the ability to buy an apartment. It shows the hypothetical floor area that can be purchased for the average monthly gross wage in the enterprise sector, assuming current average asking prices for apartments. The greatest value of the indicator lies in its ability to track changes in the relationship between prices and incomes over time, as well as to compare cities.
Importantly, the indicator responds strongly not only to wage growth, but also to the structure of developers’ supply. In recent quarters, this factor has increasingly determined the differences between individual markets.
Kraków and Warsaw: two markets, two directions
The contrast between Kraków and Warsaw illustrates this best. In Kraków, the affordability of new apartments clearly improved, from around 0.61 sqm at the end of 2023 to around 0.71 sqm in the first quarter of 2026. This happened because developers introduced a large pool of relatively cheaper apartments to the market, slowing the increase in the average price per square metre. As a result, even moderate wage growth translated into a real improvement in purchasing power.
In Warsaw, the opposite mechanism was at work. Although the average gross wage rose slightly more than in Kraków, the market became increasingly dominated by expensive premium-segment supply. Apartments in the best locations, often very expensive per square metre, pushed up average housing prices and effectively neutralised the positive impact of wage growth.
Where affordability is rising and where it is shrinking
According to BIG DATA RynekPierwotny.pl and Statistics Poland data, in the first quarter of 2026 the average monthly gross wage allowed buyers to purchase from 0.59 to 0.85 sqm of a new apartment, depending on the city.
Katowice continues to record the highest level of affordability, where the average salary was enough to buy around 0.85 sqm of a new apartment. Although this result is slightly weaker than in the previous quarter, housing affordability in the capital of Upper Silesia improved clearly year on year.
Łódź also performs very well. Over the past 12 months, the affordability of new apartments improved there the most, and in the first quarter of 2026 the average salary was enough to buy around 0.76 sqm. This was the result of a relatively slower increase in apartment prices combined with rising wages. In this respect, Łódź is increasingly distancing itself from Poznań, Kraków and the Tricity market.
An improvement in purchasing power is also visible in Kraków and Wrocław, where the affordability of new apartments increased to around 0.71 sqm and 0.66 sqm, respectively. The improvement in both cities is visible both quarter on quarter and year on year. This shows that a market-balancing mechanism has been at work: apartment prices are rising more slowly than a few quarters ago, while wages, although no longer growing as dynamically as during the inflationary boom, are still increasing.
Residents of Poznań have fewer reasons for optimism. In the first quarter of 2026, the average salary there was enough to buy only 0.69 sqm, while a year earlier it was possible to purchase a noticeably larger area. In this case, the decline in purchasing power is a classic example of housing price growth outpacing wage growth.
Stagnation is also visible in Gdańsk, where the affordability indicator has hovered around 0.61 sqm for several quarters. Although the market has calmed after the previous wave of price increases, high prices, driven largely by the premium segment and seaside locations, are effectively limiting improvements in housing affordability for households earning average wages.
Warsaw once again came last in the ranking. The capital is the only metropolitan area where the affordability of new apartments not only remains the lowest, but has also deteriorated over the past year.
The quiet barrier to affordability
From the perspective of the past 12 months, it is clear that the improvement in new housing affordability was not universal, but selective. The biggest gains were recorded in cities with a more mass-market structure of new supply, while metropolitan areas with a high share of expensive offers, led by Warsaw, remain beyond the reach of many households. There is little to suggest that this affordability map will change radically in the near future.
“Although few people are talking about a price bubble today, the data show that the problem of housing affordability in many cities is quietly growing, quarter by quarter — without spectacular price increases, but with equally painful consequences for buyers. The absence of a price bubble does not yet mean a market friendly to people earning average wages,” commented Marek Wielgo.
