The rebound seen in June was not a one-off. In July, more than 4,400 new homes were sold across Poland’s seven largest residential markets. Once again, sales remained clearly above the number of newly launched units. This is good news for listed property developers, but it does not signal an equally strong improvement in results across the entire sector. Companies with a strong presence in Warsaw, the Tricity area and Wrocław, with products aligned with buyers’ borrowing capacity and projects ready for handover, may benefit the most. Current contracting activity is strengthening the outlook primarily for 2027, while earnings in the second half of 2026 will still largely depend on units sold earlier.
The market is absorbing supply
The most important signal from recent months is not simply the increase in sales, but the reversal in the relationship between demand and supply.
According to Otodom data, developers launched around 3,000 homes in July, while sales exceeded 4,400 units. The change is even more apparent in year-to-date figures. Between January and July 2026, home sales were 15% higher than new supply. A year earlier, the situation was the opposite, with developers launching 33% more homes than they sold.
This indicates a transition from a period of rapid expansion in available inventory to a phase in which that supply is gradually being absorbed.
This trend reduces the risk of a further build-up in unsold inventory and improves developers’ operating position, although it does not in itself imply a sharp increase in prices. It may, however, help restore balance to the market and reduce the risk that the number of new homes grows faster than actual demand.
The number of reservations also provides support for the coming months. July was the third consecutive month in which reservations exceeded 2,800 units. Some of this demand should translate into signed development agreements, provided access to financing does not deteriorate.
There is no single housing market
Otodom estimates show that, at the sales pace recorded over the previous three months, available housing inventory in Warsaw would be sufficient for 3.6 quarters, compared with 3.8 quarters in Wrocław and 3.9 quarters in the Tricity area.
In Łódź, the equivalent figure was 7.4 quarters, while in Katowice it stood at 9.6 quarters.
This means that the outlook for individual listed developers depends not only on the total number of homes they have on offer, but also on the cities and price segments in which they operate.
For an investor buying shares in a property developer, the company’s geographic exposure therefore matters. A developer with a large portfolio in Warsaw, the Tricity area and Wrocław may benefit from faster absorption in the second half of the year than a company concentrated on markets where existing inventory represents more than two years of sales.
That does not automatically translate into stronger financial results, but it increases the importance of location and the readiness of individual projects to be launched.
Company data confirms improvement towards the end of the first half
Figures published by listed developers are consistent with the picture of a gradual market recovery.
Dom Development Group recorded net sales of 1,161 units in the first quarter and 1,221 units in the second quarter, bringing first-half sales to 2,382 homes. Sales were therefore slightly stronger in the second quarter despite the long May holiday weekend and the beginning of the summer season.
The acceleration was even more visible in ATAL’s figures. The company signed 1,547 development and preliminary agreements in the first half of the year. It signed 235 agreements in April, 290 in May and 383 in June. At the end of June, it also had 287 active reservation agreements.
June was therefore clearly the strongest month of the second quarter.
Develia, meanwhile, sold 1,752 homes in the first half of the year, compared with 1,699 a year earlier. In the second quarter alone, sales reached 892 units, up from 748 in the corresponding period of 2025. The Group also had 125 reservation agreements that may be converted into development contracts in subsequent periods.
It should be noted that figures reported by individual companies are not fully comparable, as issuers may apply slightly different definitions of sales, reservations and active agreements.
The direction of change is nevertheless clear. For some of the largest developers, the latter part of the first half was stronger than the beginning of the year, while July’s market-wide figures do not suggest any abrupt reversal of this trend.
Stronger sales will not immediately translate into higher profits
From a stock-market perspective, it is necessary to distinguish between two meanings of a “stronger half-year”.
The first concerns operating sales, meaning contracts being signed today. In this respect, the June and July figures provide grounds for moderate optimism. Demand remained high, reservations stayed strong and sales began to exceed new launches.
The second concerns financial results. In residential development, these depend primarily on the handover of completed homes rather than simply on the signing of sales agreements.
ATAL said it would recognise 1,013 handed-over units in first-half revenue, including 513 in the second quarter. Dom Development handed over 1,273 homes in the first quarter and 703 in the second.
Current sales are therefore primarily building the earnings pipeline for future periods, while profits in the second half of 2026 will depend largely on projects sold earlier and scheduled for handover in the coming months.
July’s data may therefore have a forward-looking impact on developers’ share prices. Investors do not necessarily need to wait until revenue is recognised in the accounts if rising sales increase the likelihood of stronger results in 2027.
At the same time, stronger contracting does not automatically guarantee higher profitability. The mix of projects being sold, the pace of new launches, construction costs and selling prices will all remain important.
What should investors watch in the second half?
June brought a strong rebound, while July confirmed that buyers remained active.
The most important argument in favour of a stronger second half is not double-digit growth in a single month, but the seven-month period in which sales have exceeded new supply. This shows that the market is gradually absorbing inventory and moving towards a more balanced phase.
For listed developers, four indicators will be particularly important: quarterly sales, the number of reservations, the pace at which new projects are launched and the handover schedule.
Companies with homes at an advanced stage of construction in Warsaw, the Tricity area and Wrocław may have the greatest advantage, as these are currently the markets with the shortest periods needed to absorb available supply.
Based on data available at the beginning of August, the second half can therefore be expected to be stronger in terms of sales activity than cautious expectations at the start of the year might have suggested.
There is not yet, however, sufficient evidence to conclude that every developer will report a proportionally higher profit.
For residential developers, an improvement in demand first appears in reservations and sales, then in handovers and only at the final stage in the income statement.
NBP tempers optimism but does not signal a shutdown of mortgage lending
Housing sales data points to continued buyer activity, but the residential market remains highly dependent on access to financing.
The latest lending market survey from the National Bank of Poland therefore provides an important counterpoint to the positive figures coming from the development market.
The most important signal from the survey is forward-looking. Banks say they intend to tighten lending criteria for households in the third quarter of 2026. At the same time, they plan to ease criteria for small and medium-sized enterprises.
Banks also expect demand for credit to increase among large companies and households, while declining in the SME sector.
This represents a change from the declarations made three months earlier. In the previous edition of the survey, banks had expected to ease lending standards for households in the second quarter and anticipated stronger demand.
The latest declarations indicate that lending policy towards individual customers is set to become more restrictive in the third quarter.
This does not necessarily mean that access to mortgages will suddenly be cut off.
Tighter lending criteria primarily refer to the standards banks use to assess whether a customer qualifies for financing. This may involve a more cautious assessment of income, employment stability, existing debt, required down payments or acceptable levels of risk.
It does not automatically mean higher lending margins or the withdrawal of mortgage products from banks’ offers.
Nevertheless, the change in lenders’ approach to the market is noteworthy.
The most interesting combination is the simultaneous expectation of higher demand and the planned tightening of lending criteria. Banks expect more households to seek financing, but they also intend to become more selective in choosing customers.
It is therefore possible that the number of mortgage applications will continue to rise, while not all households experience the same improvement in access to credit.
What lies ahead for the housing market?
From the perspective of the residential market, this could mean a more selective recovery.
Buyers with stable incomes, an adequate down payment and relatively low levels of other debt are likely to benefit the most.
Greater barriers may remain for households close to the limits of their borrowing capacity, even if nominal interest rates on new mortgages are lower than a year earlier.
For listed developers, this means that not only the price per square metre but also the total price of a home may become increasingly important.
Companies with a broad portfolio of mainstream units, particularly two- and three-bedroom apartments and projects outside the most expensive parts of Poland’s largest metropolitan areas, may perform relatively better.
These are the types of homes most likely to remain within the borrowing capacity of an average household.
The NBP survey should therefore not be ignored. At the same time, it should not be interpreted as a forecast of a collapse in mortgage lending.
The same institutions expect demand for credit to continue increasing.
The most likely scenario is therefore a continuation of the recovery combined with greater selectivity on the part of banks.
This is creating a two-speed market.
On the one hand, the number of people interested in buying a home and using bank financing is increasing. On the other, credit may remain readily accessible primarily to customers with the strongest financial profiles.
For developers, this will be another argument in favour of aligning their housing offer with buyers’ actual budgets. For stock-market investors, it means paying closer attention to the structure of individual companies’ portfolios rather than focusing solely on the total number of units sold.
The content presented above reflects solely the personal views of the author and has been prepared exclusively for educational purposes. It does not constitute a “recommendation” within the meaning of the Regulation of the Polish Minister of Finance of 19 October 2005 on information constituting recommendations concerning financial instruments or their issuers, nor does it constitute a recommendation within the meaning of Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for the objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for the disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest.
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