The latest heatwave affecting Poland is no longer an exceptional event, but part of an increasingly clear trend. According to the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, June 2026 was an extremely warm month, while a new all-time temperature record of 40.5°C was set in Słubice on 28 June. Scientists warn that climate change is increasing both the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, ranging from heatwaves and violent storms to droughts and flash floods. In their view, water scarcity is now becoming Poland’s greatest climate-related challenge.
“Climate change essentially means an excess of energy in the Earth’s climate system, so it affects every aspect of the weather,” Michał Brennek of the Department of Atmospheric Physics at the Institute of Geophysics of the Polish Academy of Sciences told the Newseria news agency.
“We will experience fewer periods of cold weather with snowfall and fewer days with lasting snow cover. At the same time, storms involving phenomena such as hail and tornadoes are becoming more frequent and more violent. This leads to local flooding, inundation and flash floods. Weather variability is also increasing,” he added.
According to the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, the first half of 2026 was marked by exceptionally high weather variability and significant temperature contrasts.
A cold January and a severe frost wave at the beginning of February were quickly followed by a very warm start to spring. This caused the growing season to begin unusually early and accelerated plant development.
At the same time, frequent and severe frosts, which were most intense in April, damaged developing buds, flowers and young shoots. These conditions contributed to substantial losses in agriculture and fruit farming.
“We are experiencing more and more heatwaves. Research published this year shows that both their duration and the temperatures from which they begin can clearly be attributed to the intensifying effects of climate change,” Brennek said.
Poland Sets a New Temperature Record
The end of June and beginning of July brought extremely high temperatures. In many locations, temperatures exceeded 35°C, while nights remained tropical, with readings above 20°C.
According to the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, a temperature of 40.5°C was recorded in Słubice on 28 June. This was 0.3°C above the previous record, which had stood for almost 105 years.
Soil temperatures at a depth of five centimetres also exceeded 40°C in many locations, reaching more than 41°C in north-western Poland.
“The type of weather pattern that brought warm air into Poland from the south is nothing new in itself,” Brennek explained.
“The difference is, firstly, that southern regions are considerably warmer than they were 20 or 50 years ago and, secondly, that the weather system is far more stable and remains in place for much longer.”
“Paradoxically, this is also a consequence of the thawing Arctic and changes in an ecosystem located in an entirely different part of the planet. The hot tropics and the cold Arctic were always in balance. We have now disrupted that balance and are experiencing the consequences,” he added.
Most Poles Notice Increasingly Extreme Weather
Polish residents are also becoming increasingly aware of the growing frequency of extreme weather events.
A survey conducted by More in Common found that 59% of respondents believe heatwaves are becoming more frequent and severe.
More than half of people living in rural areas and small towns assessed Poland’s preparedness for droughts, violent storms and floods negatively. Only 7% of respondents said the country was well prepared for such events.
“It is extremely dry, which can be seen in forests and fields. This is connected with agricultural and forest drainage systems not being adapted to the current climate, while in cities it is linked to the classic problem of excessive concreting,” Brennek said.
“We use uniform paving stones instead of urban greenery and disrupt the water balance. This has also been visible in river levels, which remained low for most of the year. Recent rainfall brought some improvement, but by the end of July we were once again facing a water shortage.”
“Drought is the greatest threat facing Poland,” he added.
During the hottest days, almost the entire country experienced a severe lack of moisture in the upper layer of soil.
Only in the north-east and locally in the Małopolska region did soil moisture remain at approximately 70%. Across the rest of the country, it fell to between 15% and 20%, and in some areas dropped below 10%.
Heavy Rain Does Not Solve the Water Shortage
“We have created a landscape that encourages water to drain away and evaporate, meaning that it does not remain in the environment,” Brennek said.
“As temperatures rise, warmer air can hold more moisture, which increases evaporation. More energy in the atmosphere also means that rainfall becomes more intense.”
“We are seeing more torrential rain and violent storms. Instead of water being delivered gradually over a longer period, allowing the landscape to absorb it, it arrives all at once. This results in flash floods and local inundation, while at the same time there is nothing in the landscape to retain the water,” he explained.
Poland is among the European countries with relatively limited water resources.
According to Statistics Poland and Polish Waters, the country’s average renewable water resources amount to approximately 1,600 cubic metres per person annually. In dry years, the figure may fall to around 1,100 cubic metres.
This is below the United Nations water-security threshold of 1,700 cubic metres per person.
Poland currently retains approximately 7.5% of its average annual water runoff, while government documents set a target of increasing retention to around 15%.
Agriculture Faces Growing Risks
“Our agriculture will begin to suffer because there is no water in the system. There is also no clear plan for retaining it,” the expert from the Institute of Geophysics said.
“When we talk about agricultural drainage systems, they are suitable for the climate conditions of the 1950s. The landscape was drained at that time, and agricultural drainage continues to function in practically the same form today. No one has seriously considered what should be done about it.”
“Farmers will lose out because the climate system will become less stable for them, inevitably increasing the risks associated with agricultural production. Consumers will ultimately pay for this through higher food prices,” Brennek added.
According to Polish Waters, agricultural drought has already affected 62% of municipalities in Poland. The Institute of Meteorology and Water Management has also reported persistent hydrological drought across numerous river basins.
The Climate Coalition’s report, The Impact of Climate Change on Poland’s National Security, warns that climate change will contribute to declining yields for most crops worldwide.
Climate Adaptation Must Cover Every Area of Policy
“Just as climate change is an all-encompassing problem, adapting to it must also be an all-encompassing effort,” Brennek said.
“We need to retain as much water as possible in ecosystems, regardless of whether we are talking about cities or rural areas, because Poland has been struggling with an unprecedented drought for years.”
“The second priority is to create as much green space as possible. Every tree provides environmental services, including free cooling by producing shade, which we should make better use of,” he added.
“In political and economic terms, we also need stable legislation and reliable funding to support the transition to green energy.”
