One crucial question: Harris or Trump? Gold in mild defensive, EUR/PLN above 4.36, USD/PLN over 4.00. The decision of the Bank of Australia slightly overshadowed as all eyes are on the USA.
Exhausted topic, unknown result
Almost everything has been said about the US election: who would be better off winning (and for whom), and which assets would benefit from it. Trump had an advantage, so did Harris, but everything was happening within such small point deviations that we do not know yet who will move into the White House. Today’s day runs under the dictation of waiting for the first incoming results. They can be expected from Tuesday to Wednesday Polish time, and from then an almost guaranteed high volatility period can be expected. Even more so, as the first results may not indicate the final winner. The situation may change from hour to hour. The main currency pair anchored around the level of 1.09 and larger movements can be expected after the publication of partial results. Most analysts believe that a Harris win would weaken the USD, while Trump would strengthen the American currency. We will see whether this will indeed be the case soon.
There is pressure, but it’s minor
In all this mess and nervous waiting in the FX market, it is no surprise that the domestic currency is losing a bit. However, these are not major movements, EUR/PLN is slightly above 4.36, CHF/PLN above 4.64. The big question mark over the next White House host means that risky assets are not desired in the portfolio. Moreover, in the emerging markets currency basket, we also have CNY and MXN, which are most vulnerable to the outcome of the US elections. Their greater volatility can affect the whole basket, including the PLN. This Wednesday is also the day of the Monetary Policy Council meeting, followed by a press conference of chairman Glapinski on Thursday. However, the base scenario still maintains the current tone, which might indicate no interest rate changes, especially after recently better PMI numbers.
Hawkish Bank of Australia
It’s hard to talk about the calendar today when everyone is just waiting for one event. ISM Service data will be released at 4 p.m., but the chance that it will revive greater volatility is small. Especially since it’s expected to reach a value similar to the previous month and oscillate near 55 points, which is quite stable in the areas of economic growth. Today, the Bank of Australia has its meeting. And while the decision itself (to maintain interest rates) may not have been a surprise, its hawkish tone at the press conference (and clear signal that there will be no change in monetary policy} has added energy to the Australian currency. AUD gains the most of all G-10 currencies, also taking into account those in demand today, like CHF or JPY.
Author: Krzysztof Adamczak, Currency analyst at Walutomat.pl
Source: https://managerplus.pl/wybory-w-usa-harris-czy-trump-rynki-walutowe-w-napieciu-zloty-traci-a-wszystkie-oczy-na-pierwsze-wyniki-99574
