Under the EU’s RED III Directive, by 2030 42% of the hydrogen used in industry is to be hydrogen in the form of renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBO), and by 2035 that share is to rise to 60%. One pathway to meeting these requirements is investment in green hydrogen production and its derivatives such as green ammonia. At present, however, Polish industry is not ready. Experts stress that the development of this market could accelerate the country’s energy transition—but only with systemic support, on both the supply and demand sides.
Green ammonia can be used as a carrier of energy and hydrogen, whose storage and transport are technically challenging and costly. It can help decarbonize the fertilizer sector, serve as a fuel in transport (especially maritime shipping) and in heavy industry—for example as fuel for rotary kilns in cement production, reducing the use of fossil fuels. Growing interest in green hydrogen and ammonia is driven by RED III, which requires Member States to increase the use in industry of RFNBO—renewable fuels of non-biological origin, i.e., other than, for instance, biomass.
“I had the great honor and privilege that three years ago, when I was still in the European Parliament, I was responsible for the entire hydrogen legislation and for bringing it to life. It was the first regulation of this kind in Europe and one of the first in the world—specific and comprehensive. Today we are already using it and implementing its provisions in practice,” said Prof. Jerzy Buzek, Prime Minister of Poland in 1997–2001 and former President of the European Parliament, speaking at the Diplomatic Opening of the Year 2026. “If we want to win the perspective of 2050 and ensure a safe climate for our planet and for ourselves, the shift to renewable energy is necessary. But electricity from renewables alone will not solve every challenge. We will not smelt steel that way, nor will we power aviation. One possible solution is to produce green hydrogen based on electricity generated from renewable sources.”
“Ammonia—one of the derivatives of green hydrogen—is a necessary element of the energy transition. You cannot electrify the entire economy solely with renewable energy sources built within our country,” says Tomoho Umeda, CEO of Hynfra, a company developing green hydrogen and green ammonia projects, and Chair of the Hydrogen Economy Committee of the Polish Chamber of Commerce. “Ammonia is a fuel like gas or oil—except it is completely zero-emission, and it can be produced in many different places around the world, practically without geographic constraints. That significantly reduces geopolitical dependencies. Ammonia production can be democratized and developed virtually anywhere on the planet.”
Ammonia is crucial for the nitrogen fertilizer sector, as it is the basic feedstock used in its manufacture. Poland is among the leading producers of nitrogen fertilizers in the European Union, ranking third by production volume. Experts argue that decarbonizing ammonia production in Poland would therefore have a meaningful impact not only on reducing CO₂ emissions in the chemical industry, but also on food security and the competitiveness of the domestic agri-food sector. Drawing on implementations such as Japan’s Hekinan power plant, this technology also opens the door to co-firing ammonia with coal—which, according to experts, significantly lowers emissions and could prevent Polish 200 MW units from being disconnected after 2028.
Globally, more than 180 million tonnes of so-called grey ammonia are produced each year, with Europe accounting for 10% of output. Europe’s share of global demand is slightly higher. Europe covers about 60% of its ammonia needs with domestic production and 40% through imports. Poland is a significant producer and consumer of conventional ammonia on the continent, with more than a century of experience in producing and transporting it. The main off-takers are the fertilizer industry (around 85% of global consumption) and the chemical sector. Strategies of key Polish companies assume increasing the share of low-emission ammonia as a route to decarbonizing operations.
“Today, green ammonia—produced from renewables and green hydrogen—can be cheaper in Poland than grey ammonia made from natural gas. That means lower production costs, fewer emissions, and reduced burdens related to emissions charges (ETS) in our industry and transport. That is a huge relief,” the former President of the European Parliament emphasized in an interview with the Newseria agency.
The report “Forecast of demand for renewable hydrogen RFNBO in Poland by 2030” estimates that, to achieve the industrial target under the directive by 2030, the baseline scenario would require production of about 189,000 tonnes of green hydrogen from renewable sources other than biomass. Domestic chemical and fertilizer sectors will likely be forced to import this feedstock from abroad to meet directive-driven demand. Poland does not produce RFNBO hydrogen at that scale—due to economics and the lower efficiency of renewables at Poland’s latitude.
“In Poland it is possible to produce low-emission ammonia, but the problem is volume. Every zero-emission fuel relies on renewable energy sources. It’s hard for me to imagine that we could allocate, for example, tens of thousands of hectares to renewables just to produce ammonia in Poland. That is not a problem, however, wherever there is desert and unlimited land,” explains Tomoho Umeda.
A way forward may be to produce hydrogen and then synthesize ammonia in locations with more competitive conditions for renewable energy production, such as Oman, Jordan, and Mauritania.
“In North Africa we have deserts where the sun shines virtually from morning to evening, and there are good winds that generate electricity. There, on site, green hydrogen is produced from green electricity through electrolysis, and ammonia is made from that green hydrogen,” says Prof. Jerzy Buzek.
“Producing ammonia in different places around the world is also a necessary element of the global expansion of Polish companies, because I see no reason why they shouldn’t produce it in Egypt, Oman, Jordan, Mauritania, or India and bring it to Poland. We don’t have to rely only on German, Arab, or Chinese investors. This is the area of expansion we should focus on, creating projects that secure fuel not only for our country, but for the entire Central and Eastern European region,” Umeda assesses.
In such a model, Poland—as one of Europe’s leading producers of grey ammonia—could leverage its long-standing experience in transporting the product.
“Chemically, green ammonia is the same product as grey ammonia; what differs are the inputs—the production feedstocks,” Prof. Jerzy Buzek explains.
“In Poland, hydrogen itself will play a greater role—produced in a distributed model, based on clusters, cooperatives, or energy communities, and meeting various local needs. But the huge volumes required to decarbonize large industry or the power sector are impossible to produce in Poland. The two must work together: both balanced imports and balanced domestic production are the recipe for energy security in the near future,” Tomoho Umeda concludes.
Experts indicate that demand for green ammonia will grow rapidly in the coming years. The engineering company KBR’s report “The future of ammonia supply in Europe” estimates that by 2030 the gap between demand and production in Europe could reach about 7.2 million tonnes per year. Many countries are therefore already preparing to scale up production.
“It’s high time we got moving in Poland on green ammonia and green hydrogen,” Prof. Jerzy Buzek says. “A support system is clearly needed both for buyers of green ammonia and for its producers. We need an act of law prepared by the government—similar to Poland’s existing provisions supporting renewables like wind power and photovoltaics. Such regulations already operate in Germany and Romania.”
“For the last few years, there was a belief that green ammonia would be much more expensive than grey ammonia, which today is produced in Puławy, Kędzierzyn, or Tarnów. But that is changing. I don’t think support systems will be about subsidies or contracts for difference. Large ammonia plants are often located in politically unstable countries—for example in Africa—so the risk cost is quite high. Here, the support mechanism from the state or the European Union should move more toward guarantees for investors that if they invest and something happens, their money won’t simply evaporate,” says the CEO of Hynfra.
Industry representatives emphasize that Poland currently lacks a liquid market for RFNBO. In their view, the challenge is not only ensuring the availability of green ammonia at affordable prices—supporting producers—but also creating incentives to increase consumption. As an example, they point to Germany’s support system in the form of a two-sided auction managed by the public entity H2Global/Hintco, which uses a dedicated platform to match the interests of producers importing green ammonia with those of buyers. Under this mechanism, Germany has secured its first green ammonia deliveries, expected to come from Fertiglobe’s facilities in Egypt. Renewable ammonia is to be delivered to European ports in 2027, with an estimated volume of 19.5 thousand tonnes, rising to a combined 397 thousand tonnes by 2033.
“The hydrogen economy is entering a new phase—it is inevitable. It is an entirely new opening for the economy, in a field in which Poland has more experience than anyone else,” Prof. Jerzy Buzek concluded in his speech.
