On Tuesday, the Ministry of Energy presented an updated National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP), outlining a significant increase in the share of renewable energy sources in electricity generation. According to the document, renewables are expected to account for 51–53% of electricity production by 2030 and 65–68% by 2040. Work on the plan has been underway for many months, and it is scheduled to be submitted to the European Commission in January or February 2026. This step is intended to bring to a close the EU infringement procedure launched against Poland.
Poland was the last European Union member state to submit an updated energy and climate plan. In October, the European Commission referred the matter to the Court of Justice of the EU, citing Poland’s failure to meet the deadline—the documents were due in Brussels by the end of June 2024.
Two transformation scenarios
The updated NECP outlines two development pathways for the energy sector. The balanced transition scenario (WEM), preferred by the Ministry of Energy, assumes hard coal consumption of 28.4 million tonnes in 2030 and 10.1 million tonnes in 2040. A more ambitious scenario (WAM) envisages coal use falling to 19.4 million tonnes in 2030 and just 0.7 million tonnes by 2040.
Energy Minister Miłosz Motyka emphasized that the plan is designed to reconcile climate objectives with the need to preserve economic competitiveness. Speaking at a press conference, he stressed that the goal is not to lower transition ambitions, but to adopt a pragmatic pace of change that will help keep energy prices at acceptable levels for industry and households.
Renewables and nuclear are the backbone of the mix
Onshore and offshore wind power, together with photovoltaics, are expected to play a central role in achieving the 2030 targets. By the end of the decade, total installed capacity in the National Power System is projected to exceed 90 GW, and by 2040, it will be more than double the level recorded in 2025.
The Ministry of Energy estimates that, compared with 2025, unit electricity generation costs could fall by 8% by 2030 and by 18% by 2040. Total investment outlays between 2026 and 2040 are estimated at PLN 2.7 trillion under the WEM scenario and up to PLN 3.5 trillion under the more ambitious variant.
Nuclear power is described in the plan as a stable, zero-emission foundation of the energy system. The projected atomic capacity in the 2040 power mix ranges from 4.9 to 5.9 GW. The NECP also assumes progressive electrification of the economy, which will drive electricity demand to around 200 TWh in 2030 and approximately 270 TWh in 2040.
Source: managerplus.pl
