After weeks of gains, the gold market has taken a breather – but experts agree this is more of a pause than a reversal of the trend. They emphasize that the fundamental factors supporting gold demand remain intact and that the beginning of next year is likely to bring another rally for the king of metals.
In early October, for the first time in history, the price of gold surpassed $4,000 per ounce, setting a new record and remaining close to this level throughout the month.
According to Michał Tekliński, an expert at Goldsaver and Goldenmark, the current situation in the gold market is a textbook example of consolidation following a strong uptrend.
“For several weeks now, we’ve seen gold prices stabilizing in the $3,900–$4,100 per ounce range. This is a natural phase after nine consecutive weeks of gains since late August. Such ‘pauses’ in the market often precede another strong move upward,” says Tekliński.
Politics, the Fed, and Trade Wars: A Cocktail of Uncertainty
The Goldenmark Group expert stresses that this year’s gold records are largely driven by geopolitical and economic uncertainty. The United States is in the midst of the longest government shutdown in history – a partial closure of federal institutions due to a lack of budget approval.
At the same time, President Donald Trump continues his aggressive trade policies, the legality of which is now being reviewed by the U.S. Supreme Court.
“If the court rules that the tariffs introduced by Trump were illegal, paradoxically, it may not calm the markets. On the contrary – it could increase uncertainty and trigger even greater volatility. And in such conditions, gold has historically performed best,” notes Tekliński.
Another factor influencing gold prices is the prospect of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year. The market is currently pricing in a 70% probability of such a move, despite Jerome Powell’s warnings against excessive optimism.
“Gold thrives in a low-interest-rate environment. When real interest rates decline, the appeal of assets like gold – which don’t pay dividends, but preserve purchasing power – increases,” adds the Goldsaver expert.
Who Is Buying Gold?
Tekliński points out that the underlying fundamentals of the gold market remain very strong. Central banks continue to buy gold at record levels, and ETF funds – despite minor corrections – still hold historically high reserves.
“We’re seeing a continuation of the global trend toward reserve diversification. More and more countries are relocating their gold from the U.S. and London to Asia – recently, Cambodia’s central bank announced that its new gold reserves will be stored not in New York, but in Shanghai. This is symbolic, but a significant shift in influence on the global market,” says the Goldenmark Group expert.
In China, recent regulations that increase taxes on jewelry may even boost demand for investment gold – bars and coins.
In Poland, appetite for gold is also on the rise. The Monetary Policy Council has announced another interest rate cut, prompting savers to seek alternative stores of value.
“NBP President Adam Glapiński reminded that Poland increased its gold reserves from just 14 tonnes in 1996 to over 515 tonnes today, with plans for further purchases. The goal is for one-third of this gold to be physically stored in the country. This shows that even the central bank is betting on real assets that are resistant to economic shocks,” explains Tekliński.
What’s Next for Gold Prices?
The Goldsaver and Goldenmark expert emphasizes that consolidation periods typically end with another upward impulse.
“Analyst forecasts – including those from Saxo Bank and ING – suggest that in the early months of 2026 we may see another price rally. The demand fundamentals are strong, and political uncertainty isn’t going away – gold remains one of the most resilient assets in unstable times,” Tekliński concludes.
The gold market is ending the year in a state of balance – after dynamic gains, the time has come for consolidation, but all macroeconomic indicators suggest that gold continues to hold its status as a strategic hedge asset.
Source: ceo.com.pl
