Gold continues to dominate the focus of global financial markets, as uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy and China’s growing presence in global industrial markets significantly impact investment dynamics. The precious metal is also increasingly being considered a legitimate form of payment in the United States.
The beginning of last week saw a period of gold price consolidation and a stronger U.S. dollar, but by the end of the week, gold had surged to $3,080 per ounce. This week started even more positively for the yellow metal, with prices surpassing $3,100 per ounce for the first time in history.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs raised its gold price forecast to $3,300 per ounce by the end of 2025. This suggests that long-term economic or geopolitical factors, coupled with increasing investor interest, could drive prices even higher in the future.
At the same time, Chinese insurers—recently authorized to allocate up to 1% of their assets in physical gold—have begun making transactions on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), indicating growing interest in gold within China and potentially boosting global demand for the metal.
U.S. Tariffs and Geopolitical Tensions Influence Gold’s Trajectory
Beginning April 2, the United States will impose 25% tariffs on imported vehicles, which could disrupt global supply chains and international trade dynamics. Additionally, the announcement of a ceasefire agreement in the Black Sea between Ukraine and Russia could positively impact the stabilization of commodity markets, including gold.
China Overtakes Germany in Key Industries
In the broader context of global economic competition, China’s rising influence is becoming increasingly apparent, especially as it gains ground over Germany’s automotive, chemical, and engineering sectors. Recent data shows that China’s share of global chemical exports has risen by 60% over the last decade, while Germany’s has dropped by 14%.
In the machinery sector, Germany’s export share has declined to 15.2%, whereas China’s has increased to 22.1%. This shift is raising concerns about the future of German manufacturing, with fears of job losses and factory closures becoming more realistic. China’s industrial dominance is fueled in part by substantial government subsidies to key sectors.
Warning Sign for the Polish Economy
In Poland, the latest data from the Central Statistical Office (GUS) reveals a sharp decline in consumer spending, which may necessitate a rethinking of current economic policy. Retail sales in February dropped by 0.5% year-over-year and by 6% compared to January—well below analyst expectations of a 3.2% increase.
This unexpected result is a major disappointment and a warning signal for the economy. A downturn in consumption could have serious implications for the national budget and overall economic growth. In response to the weak data, investors are now anticipating that interest rates in Poland could be lowered as early as this summer, despite earlier claims to the contrary by Adam Glapiński, president of the National Bank of Poland.
Gold Making a Comeback as Legal Tender in the U.S.
Simultaneously, there is growing interest in the U.S. in restoring gold and silver as legal tender. The Sound Money Defense League (SMDL) is lobbying for legislative changes that would allow more states to recognize these metals as lawful money. Since 1971, the federal government has preferred a fiat currency system, which enables the printing of money without gold backing.
However, in states such as Utah, Arizona, and Wyoming, gold is already officially recognized as currency. Legislative efforts toward similar recognition are underway in Florida, Alabama, and Kansas. The main obstacles to using gold and silver as money are not their value but rather taxes, regulations, and other legal hurdles. SMDL seeks to remove these barriers.
States where gold is legal tender include:
- Utah (first to adopt in 2011)
- South Carolina (since 2013)
- Louisiana (since 2024)
- Oklahoma (since 2014)
- Wyoming (since 2018)
- Arkansas
- Arizona (since 2014)
Some states have introduced tax exemptions for gold and silver:
- Louisiana (sales tax exemption since 2011)
- West Virginia (sales tax exemption since 2019)
- Tennessee (sales tax exemption since 2022)
Legislative efforts are ongoing in the following states:
- Florida
- Alabama
- Iowa
- Kansas
Conclusion
Global markets remain heavily influenced by political decisions and structural economic shifts. Gold continues to be a key safe-haven asset during times of uncertainty. At the same time, geopolitical tensions—especially between China and Western countries—are intensifying, while interest in precious metals as alternative payment methods grows in the U.S.
By Michał Tekliński, Gold Market Expert, Goldsaver.pl, Goldenmark Group
